Elections: change of guard?” “

The elections for the fifteenth legislature of the Bundestag, the federal parliament elected every four years, are due to be held in Germany on 22 September. The current majority is composed of the SPD, the social-democratic party, with 40,9% of the vote, allied with the Greens (6,7%). In opposition are the CDU/ CSU (or “Union”, Christian parties of the centre right, with 35.1%), the FDP, the centrist liberal party (6,2%) and the PDS, Communist party of the former DDR (5.1%). An unpredictable electoral campaign. Just under two months before the ballot, great uncertainty reigns due to the series of scandals that have invested all the parties. The question of anti-semitism has rocked the liberal party due to some controversial statements by its vice-president, Möllemann. The Union has been criticized for having included the candidate Katherina Reiche, unmarried mother, and exponent of a position favourable to research on embryonal stem cells, in its “electoral team” for questions relating to women, youth and the family. Reactions to the appointment both within the party and within the Church have been strong: on 4 July Cardinal Joachim Meisner, archbishop of Cologne, judged “scandalous” the choice of Reiche, asking that “the ‘Christian’ denomination be removed from the name of the [Union’s] parties” in the “interests of credibility”. The social-democrats, who had recovered the electorate’s favour according to the opinion polls of the last few weeks, have now nose-dived due to the crisis of the Babcock Borsig engineering company and the controversies aroused by the change of guard in the board of Telekom; these woes have now been compounded by the recent sacking of the Minister of Defence Rudolf Scharping, accused by the weekly “Stern” of having received huge sums of money from a public relations consultant. The party of the ecologists is also involved: the same person had granted credits to Cem Özdemir, Turkish-born candidate of the Greens, who has been forced as a result to resign. Opposition enjoying an advantage. According to the forecasts of the pundits, the next government could be born from a coalition between Union and FDP. The polls register a major crisis for the government coalition and the rise of the opposition. Only one German in three expects a confirmation of the present executive. Apart from scandals, the real problems of the government are the economic crisis and the high rate of unemployment. The press emphasizes the presence of a populism both of the right and of the left. But what most characterizes this phase of the campaign is the absence of real ideas: “Not by its own strength but by the weakness of the government coalition, the Union is now glimpsing the chance of its return to power in the autumn”, writes Matthias Geis in the weekly “Die Zeit” of 25 July. Similarities between the programmes. The SPD is counting on the continuity of the mandate of Chancellor Schröder to realize economic development and its social objectives. “Development and security – the time has come to act”, by contrast, is the title of the Union’s programme: to consolidate direct contact with the electors, Angela Merkel, president of the CDU, made a long journey throughout the country in July. The Greens, with Joshka Fischer, their prize candidate and current foreign minister, promise the “renewal of the welfare state”. The electoral programme of the FDP also identifies the economy and security as the key issues in the campaign. “Time is running out: Germany needs changes”, says the programme of the PDS. All the parties refer to the problem of the reform of the labour market and propose various solutions to reduce the unemployment rate which reached 9,5% in June. Some guidance to the electors is being offered by the Catholic associations: Caritas in Munich presented its “touchstones” on 2 May: i.e. the objectives of family policy that should be taken into account in the choice of candidates. The Catholic League for the family followed suit on 12 June. Moreover, in a communiqué issued on 27 June, the central Committee of German Catholics (ZdK – Catholic action) urged its members to vote. Mercede Succa