In 2050 the number of the elderly over the age of 65 living in the EU is predicted to rise to 140 million” “
The structure of the global population will undergo a radical shift in the next few decades: exponential growth in the developing countries and substantial decline in Europe, America, Japan and Oceania. The data published by Eurostat (the EU’s statistics bureau) paint a detailed picture of the demographic changes about to take place in Europe: the current 376 million citizens in the 15-member EU will fall to 364 million in 2050 (the projections for a 34-member EU estimate 630 million today and 610 million in 2050). Sharp declines are forecast in Italy, Spain and Germany; in France, Ireland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, by contrast, there will be a limited tendency for the population to grow. The number of the under 15s will be reduced by 15% (reaching a maximum of 110 million in 2050); the population of working age comprised between the ages of 15 and 64 will decline by 20% (reaching a maximum of 380 million in 2050); the number of the over 65s, by contrast, is set to rise to 140 million in 2050, the majority of them over the age of 80. Eurostat also predicts that the rate of dependence of the non-working population (under-15s and over-65s) on the working population will rise to 50% in 2050. That means, in simple terms, that in a sample of two citizens, one will be working and producing income and the other supported either by his/her family or by the state. To complete the picture, the data on pension and health-care expenditure are significant: if in 2000 the proportion of pensions as a percentage of GDP was equivalent to 10.4%, that percentage is predicted to rise to 13.3% in 2050. As regards health care, the current 6.6% of GDP will rise to 9.3% in 2050. At the present time 32% of the elderly population in the EU are living alone, 51% with a partner; another 13% with their children, other relations or friends. Only 4% are institutionalized. The elderly cannot be regarded as a homogeneous category in Europe. Most persons between the ages of 65 and 79 (60%) live in couples, whereas only 26% of those aged 80 or over do so: 45% of the latter live alone, 10% in community homes, 19% with their children. In Spain and Portugal this form of support of the over-80s by their children rises to 40%, whereas in Sweden and Denmark is sinks below 5%. Bath, shower, WC, hot water in the home: the percentage of the elderly deprived of one of these services is 9%.
