A difficult choice ” “

Everyone is claiming victory, but the fact is that post-election Germany seems ungovernable. “The coalition led by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder lost the elections and cannot now return to leading the country. On the other hand, the coalition that supported Angela Merkel does not have a majority and will therefore have to seek external support”. Thomas Jansen , spokesman for European affairs of the Central Committee of German Catholics (ZdK – Zentralkomitee der deutschen Katholiken) explains to SIR that at the present time “a plausible hypothesis for the government of the country is an unprecedented alliance between CDU-CSU, Liberals and Greens”, even though some policy divergences would first have to be ironed out. “Alternatively the formation of a Grand Coalition, between CDU and SPD, might be an option”. The whole of Europe is watching Berlin with close attention: the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durao Barroso, speaking in Brussels, explains: “Germany is the motor of the continent”; it is therefore essential that “German leaders give rise to a stable government as soon as possible”, for the good of the country and of Europe as a whole. Schroeder called an election to get public confirmation of his government policy. What message have the Germans given to him? “The Chancellor sought a strong and open endorsement of his policy. But he didn’t get it. It seems to me that the SPD is now in a rather difficult situation and the same must be said for its leader”. What are the short-term prospects for Germany? “The work cut out for Angela Merkel, who – as leader of the relative majority party – should have the prerogative of being given the mandate as chancellor, is arduous. If she should fail to forge a new and solid alliance to govern the country, fresh elections would have to be called. I would add that perhaps Europe was expecting a clearer signal on the political orientation of my country: that didn’t happen and this is a further aspect that needs to be taken into consideration in the continental horizon”. Will something change in Germany’s international role? “In German foreign policy a basic continuity can be ascertained, maintained by all chancellors and by successive governments. But this does not alter the fact that, under a coalition led by Merkel, the style of foreign relations would change somewhat. Schroeder preferred a closer dialogue with Russia and with France. Poland and other traditional European allies had less significance in his international perspective. Angela Merkel on the other hand could re-launch a preferential dialogue with the partners of the Union, including Benelux and Italy. With Paris too relations ought to remain amicable, though placed at a different level. Undoubtedly the CDU exponent would forge a closer alliance with the USA. Lastly, Merkel and Schroeder have different approaches to Turkey’s bid for EU accession”. The elections led to the emergence of new parties, including that of the left led by Oskar Lafontaine and Georg Gysi. The post-Communists did quite well, in numerical terms, in the poll… “That’s true, we witnessed a proliferation of the political actors in Germany. What’s more, the two great popular parties, the CDU-CSU and the SDP, which have always been the two poles of the political system, have never done so badly: together, they obtained only some 70% of the votes, whereas in the past they polled 80-85% or even more. This means that in the Bundestag ‘fragmentation’ becomes a further element in the political jigsaw. And that further complicates the creation of a stable government that responds to people’s expectations”. Fact File The Social Democrats of the SPD have lost ground, but less that had been predicted in pre-election opinion polls. The Christian Democrats of the CDU-CSU have gained ground, but not sufficiently to ensure a stable executive of the country. These are the immediate results of the elections held in Germany last Sunday, 18 September. The electoral system for the lower chamber of the Federal Parliament (Bundestag) is a mixture between proportional and ‘first past the post’ and comprises a 5 percent threshold clause. In the snap elections called by Chancellor Schroeder 77.7% of the German electorate participated (there are 61.2 million electors), almost 2% less than the elections in 2002. The CDU-CSU of opposition leader Angela Merkel obtained 35.2% of the votes (38.5 in 2002), with 225 seats; the SPD of outgoing Chancellor Schroeder polled 34.3% (in the previous elections it had obtained the same percentage as its historic adversaries, the Christian Democrats), with 222 seats. The Liberals of the FDP polled 9.8% (7.4%; 61 seats), the Greens 8.1% (8.6%; 51 seats). The new Party of the Left (post-Communists) performed quite strongly, obtaining 8.7% of the votes and 54 seats. Neither the outgoing SPD-Green coalition nor that between the CDU-CSU and the Liberals would have a majority in Parliament. One unknown – though not decisive – factor remains the vote in the Dresden 1 constituency: the vote was postponed to 2 October due to the death of a candidate. If the chancellor indicated by the Head of State fails to form a government, it would be necessary to call fresh elections.