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“Economic growth in the Union is being consolidated and the confidence of consumers is returning”. The European Commission presented, on Thursday, 17 November, the provisional data for the three-year period 2005/2007; the picture that emerges from them is that of a reinforcement of the real economy, but this is offset by uncertainties in state budgets. The Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Joaquìn Almunia, explained that European growth would be linked to a positive global scenario. The gross domestic product of the 25-member Union will amount, he predicted, to 1.5% in 2005; whereas for 2006 it will rise to 2,1% and in 2007 will reach 2.4%. Almunia then referred to the expectations of the labour market, where “the unemployment rate is destined to fall substantially; it is estimated that six million new jobs, of which 4.5 in the euro area, will be created in the EU”. At the same time “the confidence of consumers should be reinforced”, bringing with it “the gradual recovery of private consumption”. Some observations made by Almunia on the countries of recent accession are of interest. They show an effervescent economy, though accompanied by high rates of unemployment (18% in Poland and Slovakia). The candidate states (Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey) register significant performances, with GDP comprised between 3.6 and 6%. In presenting these data, Almunia nonetheless placed the emphasis on the dangers deriving from the continuous rise in the price of petroleum and the possible rekindling of inflationary pressures. As regards state budgets, five countries in the euro-zone will have, in the next three years, a deficit-GDP ratio higher than the level permitted by the Stability Pact (3%): namely, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece. The more “virtuous” countries in this sense are Finland, Spain and Ireland. In this perspective (investments and consumption on the rise; employment improving), and always assuming that the Commission is not being over-optimistic, it is vital that each plays its part. The national states, the EU, the European Central Bank, according to their respective roles, are asked for interventions to support the positive trend. First, efforts need to be made to stimulate growth by multiplying investments on two fronts: that of infrastructures and that of research. Europe, today more than ever, must bank on an “economy of knowledge”, if it is to support the shock waves of the USA, China, India… Second, the role of planning and control is fundamental in a phase of expansion: inflation and the public expenditure of states need to be brought under control. Third, the collaboration of governments with the EU should give rise to a “downriver” control, in terms of the redistribution of the wealth produced in a perspective of solidarity. This should be done by acting according to effective systems of welfare state and by giving concrete form to the principles of the Lisbon Strategy, which was in its time devised to create, in a competitive system, more jobs, greater social cohesion and more rigorous environmental protection.
