An uneasy Europe

Political Europe is uneasy. The setbacks suffered in recent times by various governments in office, the upsets registered after almost all the recent legislative elections, and the growing difficulties of giving stable executives for more than one legislature, are certainly not making the process of continental integration any easier. That process places key decision-making power in the European Council (composed of the heads of state and of government of the 25). CHESSBOARD IN MOTION. Following the electoral success of the Union (centre-left coalition) in Italy and the Socialist left in Hungary, the countries of the EU ruled by centre-left governments rise to eleven: Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, Italy, Lithuania, Portugal, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Spain, Sweden and Hungary. In Germany, on the other hands, the Social Democrats are supporting the “grand coalition” government led by Christian-Democrat Angela Merkel. Estonia is ruled by a centre coalition, while the other twelve countries, including Austria (which holds the revolving Presidency of the European Council), France and Poland, are led by the centre-right. The current political chessboard could however alter in the next few months: general elections are in fact planned in Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Ireland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Sweden between 2006 and 2007. CRISIS OF POLITICS. The observation that not only political Europe, but also politics itself is in crisis in Europe seems to be confirmed by recent events. The most obvious symptom of this is the instability of coalitions and of cabinets. In France, for example, the rejection by referendum of the Constitutional Treaty highlighted a clear divide between the options of the government and President of the Republic on the one hand and of the citizens on the other. But Paris has also had to come to terms with two waves of popular unrest: first the banlieues that went up in flames last year and now the recent mass demonstrations against the contract of first employment (CPE): events that concurred to weaken the moderate forces revolving around Chirac, de Villepin and Sarkozy, while the elections in 2007 draw near. FROM BLAIR TO ZAPATERO. Of quite another nature are the problems besetting the “staying power” of the Labour government in the UK that occupies Downing Street under Tony Blair. Progressive public opinion would seem to be calling for a change of guard, with the replacement of the premier by the ‘prime minister designate’ Gordon Brown. At the same time the Conservatives, for many years relegated to the opposition, are strengthening their position. In Germany the “grand coalition” between CDU and SPD is still in its teething period, while Merkel is confirming her image as a European stateswoman. In Poland the centre-right executive is beset by wrangles between the parties that compose it, while the Spanish Socialists are having to come to terms with a public opinion divided on the provisions taken by the government led by José Luis Zapatero. INSTABILITY IN THE BALKANS AND BELARUSSIAN REGIME. If political landslides are being registered within the EU, Europe’s neighbours are also revealing difficulties of a similar nature as well as obstacles to pro-Western reforms. Romania and Bulgaria, for example, both candidates to become members of the EU on 1st January 2007, are beset by problems of delays in the organization of justice, modernization of the economic system, corruption in the public administration, protection of minorities, and so on. Croatia, it too a candidate for EU membership, has so far failed to meet its obligations to the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague, and in general the wounds caused by the inter-ethnic conflicts of the 1990s remain open in the Balkans. Further east, Ukraine remains far from pacified: it still searches for a stable executive that may harvest the legacy of the “orange revolution”. As for Belarus, billed as “the last authoritarian regime in Europe”, there can be little doubt: so long as Alexander Lukashenko remains in power, democracy and civil rights will remain a mirage. TURKEY: DEMOCRACY AND SECULAR STATE. “Two dangers threaten Turkey today: Kurdish separatism and Islamic fundamentalism”, says Ahmet Necdet Sezer, President of Turkey, giving another worrying signal of instability in Europe. In mid-April, the head of state addressed unusually strong words to the government headed by the Justice and Development party (AKP), though without ever citing by name the moderate Islamic premier Recep Tayyp Erdogan. A tug of war is going on within the strongholds of power in the republic founded by Ataturk which, since it too is a candidate for EU accession, is under the spotlight of Brussels. Democracy, rule of law, human rights, religious liberties: Erdogan and his AKP will have to face many challenges to adjust the country to the 25: the road to Brussels is still long.