Three victories

Neither the sunshine, nor the disenchantment of which the French are often suspected, dissuaded them. Feeling that in these French presidential elections nothing had been preordained, nothing already decided in advance, they forcibly made their own voice heard. Registered in large numbers in the electoral lists, they went to vote in equally large numbers.The lesson of this first round is clear: the “traditional” right and left will battle against each other in the runoff, even if the two candidates representing these convictions embody them in a different way. Nicolas Sarkozy in first place and Ségolène Royal in second, despite the doubts and oppositions within their own parties, have obtained better results than their predecessors and fulfilled their own pledges. They will now have to discuss their own plans and the resources with which to put them into practice.A second, and more joyful, lesson is to be drawn from the results of this ballot: the vote for Le Pen is slipping. The causes of this decline in his support are to be sought in the candidate’s age, his rhetoric and the trauma of 2002, even if some of his arguments were borrowed by others, i.e. by Nicolas Sarkozy, who seems to have succeeded also (as did Francois Mitterrand a long time ago with the Communist Party) in neutralizing the National Front. The electors of the extreme left represent a more or less equivalent force. Leaving on one side these irreducible protest votes, both on the far right and far left, it seems clear that the electors of 2007 have chosen not to squander their votes and to vote in a useful way. Lastly, the third lesson: in this context of ‘utility’, the Bayrou vote, far higher than that in 2002 (the most substantial advance of all), remains an event. A not negligible percentage of electors, by voting for him, have demonstrated they are tired of separations between right and left and wish for a sharing of energies and powers. The percentage of the vote he obtained, even if it does not permit qualification, and the electors it represents, will inevitably have their impact on the second round of the elections. And perhaps also on a renewed conception of French political life.The next two weeks will be exciting: the electors, in exchange for their mobilization, deserve nothing less. The French have the feeling that something ought to change, that something can change. Not everyone has the same view of this necessary break with the past. For Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, the challenge will be to succeed in convincing the voters, well beyond their own rank and file, and to be the bringers of this hope.