Ukraine, what future?

The agreement reached on the night of Sunday 27 May between Ukrainian President Victor Yuscenko, Prime Minister Victor Yanukovic and the President of the Parliament Oleksander Moroz seems for the time being to have put an end to the political crisis unleashed in the country in recent days. The compromise establishes, among other things, early elections on 30 September, and was welcomed with relief by the European Union, which had urged a peaceful normalization of the tensions, without the use of force. The conflict demonstrated that the road to democracy is long and difficult. Ordinary people, in response to the fleet of buses that brought special troops to Kiev from all over the Ukraine, could not help thinking of the orange revolution of two years ago as a lost opportunity, and saw no chance of a better future. Public opinion, besides, is divided between the two parties of Yuscenko and Yanukovic. Even though President Yuscenko spoke of proof of “mature democracy”, saying that “Ukraine emerges reinforced from this crisis” and gave his assurance that this crisis is “over”, the future remains uncertain: it is not possible to forecast how many will go to the polls on 30 September. Disappointment and a sense of bewilderment are strong in the country, and citizens see no prospects of peace and development.Ukraine is paying a very high price for this crisis. Today its foreign policy is paralysed: the President and the Prime Minister use the political machine to further their own separate agendas; the elites are divided and use any means at their disposal to attack each other and even to discredit the judicial institutions. The situation has prevented Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO, or of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This latter failure is a grave limitation, also in economic terns, since the European Union is ready to sign a free market accord with the country but only following its entry into the WTO. With the removal of the Procurator General Svyatoslav Piskun and some constitutional judges, the crisis has also inflicted a grievous blow on the primacy of the law and the independence of the judiciary and its representatives.To overcome this crisis, and pursue the road towards Europe, it will be important that the general elections of 30 September be held in a correct and transparent manner. I think the President himself wants that. This, irrespective of the results of the elections, would confirm his image as a democratic leader in the eyes of European society.