A window has opened

The two shores of the Atlantic resemble an elderly couple for whom divorce would be impossible, but who spend much of their energy in bickering, with the exception of those particular circumstances that impose on them the need to rediscover unity. As in all families, dramatic events (such as wars or, more recently, 9/11) and happy moments offer the opportunity to bury the hatchet and forget resentments. One such occasion is the election of Barack Obama, after almost eight years of incomprehension, if not of actual breach, between Europe and the Bush administration. Even America’s most faithful allies, such as the Germans, showed themselves to be critical and to have reservations. During this period of the cooling of relations, few are the dossiers on which Americans and Europeans have succeeded in working together (Iran, Afghanistan), while tensions, incomprehension or inability to understand each other have multiplied on specific issues: differences of view on climate warming, on world trade, on financial controls, on the Near East, and on relations with Russia, just to cite a few examples. Two concomitant events have in recent days changed this situation and shuffled the cards: the international financial crisis and the triumphal election of Obama as US President. A third element is the outcome of the evolution itself of Europe. Europe is progressively gaining consciousness of the need to assert its own role and its own interests, while the usual spoilsport (France), ever since Nicolas Sarkozy was elected President, has adopted a more favourable attitude and positions very close to those of the USA (for example on Iran).A certain euphoria has therefore gained ground in European diplomatic and political circles, in the conviction that new impetus could be given to Atlantic relations. This optimism is certainly justified: first of all, because it was difficult to be able to sink any lower. And second, because various views expressed by Obama cannot but create convergence with European positions: the prospect of a withdrawal from the Iraqi quagmire, or the influence of the ideas of Al Gore on the new President, cannot but contribute to Euro-American rapprochement. The same goes for Barack Obama’s position on the opening of a (firm) dialogue with Iran. Nor even in their respective analyses of the situation in Afghanistan are there any great divergences between Europe and the US.On the other hand, various particularly difficult dossiers risk putting to the test the demonstrations of good will and friendship that all Western leaders have expressed in the aftermath of Obama’s election. What will happen for example to the negotiations of the Doha round on international trade? If the American position evolves at all, it will probably do so in the direction of a hardening of its stance. The economic situation of the USA, and the need for the Democrats to avoid a mass strike by blue-collar workers, could easily lead to a postponement of an accord indefinitely. Avoiding a return to protectionism would in itself be a victory. On other controversial issues Obama’s points of view have been expressed with the imprecision typical of any electoral campaign. What will be his policy in the Middle East, beyond the vague declarations on the security of Israel and the right of the Palestinians to a State of their own? How will the rediscovered consensus in terms of the sharing of the financial, human and military costs of the war in Afghanistan be translated into facts? How can the hesitant attempts of Europeans in diplomacy and defence be reconciled and coordinated with the more decisive views of the USA?One illusion needs to be dispelled: the illusion, namely, that perfect harmony has been restored after the dissension of recent years. For the fact is that, quite apart from the good will on both sides, the fundamental interests of the one side and the other constantly surface and condition their relations; they do so between even the best of friends. Europe, for example, depends in large part on Russian energy and does not have the means (or the will) to be a global military power.We have little more than a few certainties to point out the new situation in international relations: the USA is still the greatest power of our planet, but unilateralism is ineffective and now unsustainable; the emerging countries have become inevitable players in a system of global governance; Europe presents itself as a “soft power”, but remains a Gulliver tied down by cords, and impotent, without the help of the USA. Lastly, the Euro-American alliance, if founded on real collaboration, remains an unequalled “winning card”. A window of opportunity has been opened. It would be a pity to let it slip.