Don’t forget the Balkans

Nothing is simple when one speaks of the former Yugoslavia, and this needs to be borne in mind as the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament approach.Former Finnish President Martii Ahtisaarihas also had to recognize the difficult situation in the region. His undeniable diplomatic skills – demonstrated by his commitment as UN mediator for the status of Kosovo, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize – were not enough to enable an agreement to be reached between the governments of Slovenia and Croatia on what is known as the “frontier question”.Croatia presented its application to enter the European Union in 2003, and became an official candidate for EU membership on 18 June 2004. Croatia’s hopes, however, have so far been stymied by the veto of Slovenia, so far the only one of the several states born from the ashes of the former Yugoslavia of President Tito to be admitted as a member of the EU. And so long as a veto against Zagreb persists, it is impossible to conceive that EU enlargement could also comprise Serbia, with a domino effect that also impacts on the future of Kosovo and with a persisting climate of uncertainty for the whole Balkan/Adriatic region.The bone of contention between Ljubljana and Zagreb is primarily the maritime conflict in the Gulf of Piran (and, hence, the future of the epicontinental strip and the exclusive economic zones) and also the terrestrial dispute over the Dragona area in Istria. What’s at stake in these disputes are considerable economic interests, especially as regards the fishing industry.Having verified the inability of the governments concerned to reach an agreement on their own, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Olli Rehn, had thought to entrust mediation between them to a personality “super partes” whom he identified precisely in Ahtisaari. But the Finnish diplomat, faced with the intransigence of the parties, soon had to throw in the towel, observing that the only possible solution might be recourse to international arbitration. Zagreb would like to chose for this purpose the International Tribunal in The Hague or the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in Hamburg; Ljubljana asks that the principle of equity be respected, “ex aequo et bono”, also taking into account factors that are not strictly regulated by law such as history. The only point of agreement is the commitment of both sides not to present documents subsequent to the date of the proclamation of independence (25 June 1991).In the meantime, in early April, Croatia, together with Albania, has become a member of NATO. According to Zagreb, if the frontier question did not block this membership, it is difficult to understand why it should preclude admission to the European Union (bearing in mind the fact that Brussels accepted Slovenia as a member in 2004, despite the continuing uncertainty about the new south-eastern frontier of the Union).Last Wednesday (22 April) a new summit in Brussels between Olli Rehn, the Croatian Foreign Minister, Gordan Jandrokovic, and his Slovene counterpart, Samuel Zbogar, failed to produce any result, but did permit the European Commissioner to present yet another compromise proposal. The document will be on the table at the meeting between the Prime Minister of Croatia, Ivo Sanader, and that of Slovenia, Borut Pahor, scheduled to be held in the days ahead. From their responses it should be possible to understand if Croatia can become, as planned, the 28th member state of the Union in 2011.Lasting peace for the Balkan area is precisely conditional on EU membership for the countries of the former Yugoslavia. So far, by signing the accord of stabilization and association, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina have also signalled their intention of applying for EU membership. However, so long as Zagreb is debarred from membership, it will be difficult to find any place in the EU for all the other contenders.