Balkans, still believing

It cannot be denied: when it comes to the Balkans, a dangerous form of “relaxation” sets in across West European chancelleries. However mildly, this attitude risks curbing Europe’s integration process, whose steady progress a few years ago seemed bound to enthusiastically encompass all ex-Yugoslavian Countries.Indeed, EU enlargement to 27 States shed light upon the governments’ difficulties in coping with the unexpectedly rapid advance of EU reality. The “Great” were thus obliged to come to terms with a form of powerlessness, viewing themselves on the same level – on the decisional plane – of realities with fewer inhabitants, minor geographic extensions and smaller economies. Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty will help to oil rusty mechanisms but it will take some time before full performance is achieved. That being the case, new enlargements are viewed with diffidence. The long-lasting controversy between Slovenia and Croatia on the question of borders was acknowledged with a certain detachment – if not as annoying in its delays – by most EU governments. While for Austria, Hungary and Italy interest was motivated by common borders, in conjunction with the commitment to protect minority groups living in the two contending States, the same could not be said for the rest of the EU. It wasn’t easy for London, Copenhagen, or Berlin to understand the reason behind Ljubilana’s unfaltering decision to subordinate consensus to confrontations on the resolution of protocols regarding specific areas of land and sea with Zagreb. It was a “tug of war” that wore out even the most expert European diplomats.For Croatia 2011 is expected to be a good year for EU adhesion, as predicted also by Italian premier Berlusconi in his encounter with his Croatian colleague Jadranka Kosor in the first week of February.But what will happen later? The risk, as previously mentioned, is that as things stand European diplomacy may “take the foot off the gas” postponing “sine die” the enlargement which the Balkans are in dire need of, in order to continue along the difficult path of peace. The achieved balances are still too fragile to be considered definitive. At the moment, Bosnia-Herzegovina is in the line of fire. The state of confusion still present in the Country is evident in its exclusion from the new regulations that enabled all citizens from Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia in December to enter the Schengen area without a visa. Simultaneously, NATO gave a negative response to Sarajevo’s request to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP), the NATO entry procedure adopted in the recent Enlargement processes. In the month of January the government of the Muslim-majority Srpska Republika – in Bosnia-Erzegovina – announced a referendum on the Dayton Agreements to be held in February. Zagreb responded threatening a military intervention if such initiative led to the secession of the Republika of Bosnia-Herzegovina. In the meantime the European Court for Human Rights established that Bosnia’s Constitution – cumbersomely produced ensuing the Dayton Agreements – violates the rights of minorities and must be changed. This, given that Europe is called to address yet another set of problems, won’t be an easy task. What’s important is to continue believing.