Post-Cancun

Defining post-Kyoto and establishing fixed and binding rules to limit the warming up of the planet; indicating a global strategy (post-Cancun?) to curb climate change; helping the developing countries to reduce sources of pollution and, even more urgently, preparing them to tackle the natural disasters linked to climate change: these were some of the major issues discussed at the UN Conference in Cancun (Mexico) that is now drawing to a close: it opened on 29 November; it ends on 10 December (Cf Sir Europe 85/2010). Developed countries and poor countries. It’s too premature to draw up a balance sheet of the results of the UN conference, its debates, and the decisions it has taken and those it failed to take in the Mexican resort town. But one thing is already blindingly clear: namely, that the planet “is suffering” due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and that a change of route is needed. While we need to understand how best to achieve this, action is in any case needed. The countries and regions of the world of older industrialization (Europe, USA), and with lifestyles less respectful of the environment, are pointing the finger of blame at the new “polluters”, such as China and India. The latter claim the right to rapid (and deregulated) economic growth, which will certainly not spare the atmosphere; nor do they seem to show much concern for the quality of life of their citizens. Then there are the poorer countries, at the foot of the league table in terms of development, which would like an accelerated growth, and which for the time being must come to terms with the perverse effects of a threatening climate that does not spare crops, and brings with it the scourges of famine, rising sea levels, drought and desertification. Honouring the Kyoto pledges. No one, indeed, seems to have their house in order as far as the protection of nature is concerned. The European Union, however, came to Cancun boasting of “strategies” and “measures”, implemented at the EU and national levels over the last decade, and aimed at “honouring, or surpassing, the pledges made in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol”. The point is made in a document drawn up by the Barroso Commission that accompanied the EU delegation to the UN summit in Cancun. “The 15 member states of the EU at the time of the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol pledged – says the document – collectively to reduce their [greenhouse gas] emissions by 8% over the chosen year of reference (1990 in the majority of cases) during the period 2008-2012. By 2009 emissions had been reduced by almost 13%, and predictions of future emissions suggest that the reduction obtained could at the end reach 14.2%”. The ten other member states, which entered the Community between 2004 and 2007 and “whose reduction objective has been fixed at 6% or 8% depending on case, are also well on the way to reaching their objective”. “Binding” legislation? The EU has adopted three targets it has pledged to achieve by 2020: first it has made a “unilateral commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% over their 1990 levels, and has also fixed the objective of producing 20% of its energy from renewable sources”. The third commitment is that of saving 20% of energy through increased energy efficiency and the reduction of waste, again by 2020. The Commission considers, at this point, that the EU “is the only region in the world to have adopted binding legislation that guarantees compliance with the targets fixed for 2020”. But speaking of binding legislations in the EU is, in various fields, at least risky. The EU has also tabled a “conditional offer”: namely, “to increase to 30% the reduction of its emissions by 2020 over their 1990 levels in the framework of a comprehensive international agreement on climate for post 2012 [when the Kyoto Protocol expires], provided that other major economies pledge to make their own fair contribution to this effort”. Timetable and aid. The Twenty-Seven have agreed to re-examine the situation after the Cancun Conference, “also in view of the options to go beyond the objective of a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions”. The Executive maintains that the scientific data “demonstrate that to prevent global warming from rising any higher than 2° centigrade by 2050 global emissions will have to be reduced by at least half their 1990 levels”. In this context “and in line with the responsibility of the developed countries”, the Union has fixed the objective of reducing its emissions “by 80-95% over 1990 levels” by 2050. To this end a timetable is being prepared to “outline the strategy to reach this objective and successfully implement the transition to a low carbon society”. This timetable is promised for early 2011. Also at Cancun the EU showed its international credentials by putting another key question on the table. In fact the EU is the leading world donor to the developing countries: in 2008 alone it provided over 60% of the aid linked to efforts to combat climate change. “Apart from aid to traditional development, the EU has pledged to provide fast track financings for a total allocation of 7.2 billion euro in the period 2010-2012” to help the developing countries to adapt to climate change and reduce their emissions. (2 – end)