Ever more grandparents

Europe is ageing: the fact is too obvious. Grandparents are becoming more numerous than babies. But what consequences will this demographic process have? What provisions can be taken to attenuate an apparently irreversible trend? These are questions that demographers frequently pose, but the political world also ought to devote attention to the trend and take appropriate measures. Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Commission, has posed the question anew by presenting its latest population projections 2010-2060. The experts themselves stress that these are only “scenarios that aim to provide information about the possible future and size and structure of the population, and should therefore be considered with caution”. But the questions about demographic trends in the EU remain on the table.Grey hair and social consequences. “The EU27 population is projected to increase from 501 million to 525 million in 2035, to peak at 526 million in 2040, and thereafter gradually decline to 517 million in 2060”. These are long-term projections, so many uncertainties remain; it is enough to think of what could happen in a half century in terms of fertility, immigration, or new discoveries in medicine, that already today are prolonging by many years the average life expectancy of Europeans. But the statistics are less uncertain in their forecasts by stating that “the EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older”. So the share of the population aged 65 years and over – on current demographic trends – is set to rise from 17% of the population in 2010 to 30% in 2060. Those aged 80 and over will rise from 5% to 12% of the total during the same period. All this will have evident repercussions from various points of view: on welfare, on social security, on the labour market and on healthcare; the composition of the family unit will vary. European states will have to wrestle with the problem (indeed the EU insists that it already exists today) of the financial sustainability of pension systems, the reorganization of healthcare systems (more geriatrics, less paediatrics; long hospitalization, chronic disease, terminal stages, etc.). Eurostat does not pronounce on the migration factor: however, clearly reflection will have to be devoted to the importance of the arrival of a young workforce from third countries to compensate for an ageing Europe, a Europe of grey hair.Changing “classification”. Examining the figures and tables published by the EU statistical office on 8 June, we discover that the situation reveals significant surprises, differences and anomalies from one country to another. The population, according to the Eurostat projections, is set to increase in 14 of the current EU member states and to decrease in 13. “The strongest population growth is projected to be found in Ireland”, which now presents one of Europe’s highest childbirth rates (+46%), in Luxembourg (+45%), in Cyprus (+41%), and in the UK (+27%). A positive demographic trend is also projected for Belgium, Sweden and, at some remove, France, Spain and Denmark. The sharpest population decline is projected for Bulgaria (emigration, low childbirth), which is set is lose over a quarter of its inhabitants over the next 50 years (-27%), followed by Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania. But the contraction of the number of inhabitants is not directly correlated, as might be thought, with the economic growth rate: Germany, indeed, is the most striking instance of this among the larger EU countries: here a population decrease of 19% is projected, declining from the current 81 million to 66 million in 2060. In this sense the “classification” of the countries with largest population will have to be rectified: on Eurostat projections, the UK is set to rise to top place in the league table, its population rising from 62 to 78 million; followed by France (from 64 to 73 million), followed in turn by Germany, then Italy (from 60 to 65 million), Spain (from 45 to 52 million), while Poland is set to decline from 38 to 32 million residents.From one country to another. Returning to the question of an ageing population, Eurostat emphasises: “The EU27 population is expected to become older throughout the projection period, due in particular to relatively low fertility and an increasing number of people living to higher ages. This ageing process will occur in all member states”. The consequence will be that in 50 years time “the share of the population aged 65 or over is projected to range from 22% in Ireland” (the youngest population on average in Europe), to 25% in the UK, in Belgium and Denmark, 26% in Sweden, 27% in France and Finland, 32% in Italy, 33% in Bulgaria, Germany and Slovakia, 35% in Poland and Romania, and 36% in Latvia. “Comparing 2060 with the situation one hundred years ago”, notes Eurostat, “the share of those aged 65 or more is expected to increase between two and six times in the member states for which data are available”. Again in 2060, “the share of the population aged 80 or more is projected to be 12% on average in the EU27”, ranging from 9% in Ireland, Cyprus and the UK to 14% in Germany, Italy and Spain. These are, as we said, projections and should be taken with a pinch of salt, but undoubtedly reflection ought to be devoted to the problem, and its possible consequences, both in member states and in the EU.