A good wind from the Balkans

Two apparently contradictory news items marked the fourth anniversary of Kosovo’s self-proclaimed independence. At the end of last week, the diplomatic representatives of Belgrade and Pristine in Kosovo reached an agreement on Kosovo’s participation to regional forums and meetings on the Balkans promoted by the European Union. The document also stipulates the implementation of previously ratified agreements which should enable, inter alia, to overcome disagreements on Serbia’s and Kosovo’s joint border management, an issue that in the past months caused dangerous peaks of tension in the relations between the two States. For Serbia it isn’t an official recognition of Kosovo’s independence (which, however, is recognized by 5 EU Member States). Significantly, the document drawn up by the two diplomacies clearly refers to UN Resolution 1244/99 (whereby Kosovo is considered a Serbian province) and to the advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice issued in 2010, recognizing the independence of the new State. The fronts opposing the two governments expressed their sense of betrayal, caused by such ambivalent stances. Remarkably though, the interested parties eventually put into writing in their respective official documents that they would no longer refer to the "Republic of Kosovo" but more simply to "Kosovo". Belgrade thus continues following the path leading to EU adhesion (an item on the agenda of the European Council of March 1-2), whose relations with Kosovo – notably, after the long sought-after war crimes suspects were finally turned over to the International Court of Justice – constitutes the major obstacle. In recent years German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeatedly reiterated that the dismantlement of Serbian bodies in the North of that Country, which is no longer mentioned in official documents, is the inalienable condition for the prosecution of EU/Belgrade negotiations. With this agreement the Serbian government downsized the political scope of the referendum due to take place across four municipalities in Northern Kosovo – a Serbian majority area – despite Belgrade’s opposition and the international community’s failed recognition, as well as Kosovo’s. Almost all voters (99.74% of 75% of those entitled) gave a "no" vote to Kosovan institutions thus sanctioning a friction, or to the least, a determined distancing from Belgrade. Sky-rocketing inflation (from 13.6% to 24% in the past four years) is just one of the most evident signs of the economic crisis that hit also the Balkan state, increasing the number of Eurosceptics and revitalizing thriving nationalistic sentiments against President Boris Tadiæ. At this stage, the outcome of early legislative elections, scheduled to take place on May 11, called after having dissolved Parliament, will play a crucial role. Nationalist majority votes would draw Serbia away from the EU bringing it closer the Russia, thus fulfilling a design that President Putin has been pursuing for years. The historical announcement of Croatia’s adhesion to the "27 Club" starting July 1st 2013 led the EU to expand further in the heart of the Balkans. Brussels is now called to continue its "diplomatic efforts" motivated by the belief that the Balkan area is tasked with a fundamental role for the social and economic future developments of third millennium Europe.(*) expert in Balkan politics