Fifteen decisive days

On June 17 two decisive weeks will begin for Europe. That’s the day when the Greeks will go to the polls again, owing to the failure of negotiations after the results of the elections of May 6. The de facto decision regarding Greece’s presence in euro zone countries will then be taken. France is also set to vote for the second round of legislative elections. The composition of the Assembly will determine the margin of manoeuvre of François Hollande, and hopefully release the burden that hovers on all political personalities during electoral campaigns.The following day, a crucial day for Europe and for the rest of the world, the heads of EU countries and European institutions will convene in Los Cabos, Mexico, for the G8 meeting. The debate will focus on Greece and the on future of the euro area. It will also be necessary to reassure international partners on Europe’s stability. On June 24, Mario Monti invited German chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to join him in a meeting in Rome. In his capacities as mediator, he is tasked with reaching an agreement between Germany and France on growth and Eurobonds, in view of the European Council of June 28-29. The latter, should in fact attract our attention. It represents the future not only of Greece but also of Europe, not to mention the thorny question of the future financial framework of the EU. In the meantime, euroscepitical stances are gaining grounds in Germany. 75% of the population oppose the introduction of Eurobonds, while the country’s majority calls for the reintroduction of the Deutschmark. A wide range of academics and experts are itching to do something while respected newspapers envisage the end of experimentation in Europe. Major party leaders are not yet suffering the effects of the blow. They say they want their country to remain in the EU but at the same time they propose to follow the path of federalism. Wolfgang Schäuble, minister of finances, and traditionally pro-European, recently reiterated the claim in Aix la Chapelle, whilst receiving the 2012 Charles Magne Prize during the awarding ceremony. The EU is set to have a president elected with direct universal suffrage. Foreign minister Guido Westerwelle (Liberals), said it before him, and the Chancellor-in-office seems to bend for the same solution. The Greens and the Social-Democrat protagonists Gabriel, Steinmeier and Steinbrück have recently reiterated their support to Europe’s growth. In the speech delivered at the University of Humboldt past May 24, the current President of the European Parliament Schulz, who is also a German Social-Democrat, well-known in Italy, proposes another solution, suggesting that the majority of the European Parliament should elect the President of the European Commission, which would thus become de facto the head of the European government. The question is how long this opening will persist before the negative opinions, amplified by the ‘noes’ to developing Europe. The situation now seems to have reach a standstill. Germany won’t change its stand on debt and on the emission of European Eurobonds, which have no guarantees for partners of a more Federal Europe. The ball is in the field of the rest of Europe, including France and Italy, so that they may respond to a specific question. French journalist Alexandre Adler recently remarked: "if Europe is truly ready to consent to the creation of an authentic federal ministry of Budget and Finances, whose authority would cover all economic policies of euro area countries, and if the German public opinion were reassured, original financing measures could be gradually introducing, enabling us to exit from the euro crisis once and for all". Moreover, Angela Merkel and her coalition won’t give up on the adoption of Eurobonds unless the European Treaty is changed, which might entail the need for a referendum in Germany. The request should come from Karlsruhe’s Constitutional Court and for this, it is necessary to prepare the public opinion. It is a very serious situation. While waiting for the next decisive fifteen days I wish to quote from chapter 14 the Book of Judith: "You sent forth your Spirit to complete you work".