Crisis and new ”belle époque”

The March 14-15 summit of EU27 Heads of Government and State in Brussels, joined by the premier of Croatia, whose finishing line for EU adhesion is set for July 1st, is bound to be marked by tensions. Items on the agenda include economic governance, in the light of straggling economic recovery; pending issues are linked to the multiannual budget, banking union, and economic and monetary union. Notably, each leader will convey national concerns impacting EU Member States in various ways, ranging from political instability, painful social reforms awaiting implementation, negative GDP rates, surging unemployment and stronger populist movements. Swinging between discipline and growth. It’s practically impossible to map out the ongoing problems affecting community Europe, given its geographic extension and its geographic, social, political and cultural diversity, signalling a positive multipolarity. A unifying trait of the EU is its economic and productive weakness resulting from the crisis, with heavy consequences on the population in some Member States, while in others it is nearing its conclusion. The German situation exemplifies the recovery from the recession via a sort of national deal entailing a combination of sacrifice, austerity, creative thrust and daring investments. Angela Merkel’s Germany has returned to act as an economic locomotive, which other countries’ wagons strive to hook up. Its positive GDP coupled by plummeting unemployment rates allow Berlin to view the future with optimism, while Mrs. Merkel has good reasons to hope that next September’s legislative elections will provide renewed confidence to her CDU party, after numerous defeats at regional level. Chancellor Merkel confides that Europe – afflicted by stagnating economy and deficits – will adopt the same domestic discipline that brought Germany back on track. The latest sign in this direction comes from France, led by President François Hollande, who not by chance is the leader of the States calling for less rigour and greater community support to measures for growth. Weaker leaders. While the economic standstill is afflicting the EU, the political realm – marked by a crisis in credibility and representativeness hampering national parliaments’ performance – follows in its wake. Italy’s national elections of February 24-25, widely viewed as a success of anti-discipline and anti-Europeanist populisms, equally worries Brussels and Berlin, owing to the possible spin-off on the eurozone, mirroring the situation in Greece a few months ago. Thus at the European Council of the coming week-end the pro-tempore Italian premier Mario Monti will arrive with low negotiating powers, without the tools to take medium-term commitments which in all likelihood will be fulfilled by another Italian premier. The leaders kept under close observation for their low economic performance include those of Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, Romania, Greece, and the Baltic Republics. Hungary, the United Kingdom. National representatives that recently took office are expected to attend the meeting in Brussels (from the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta) along with others that are facing serious social emergencies (notably Bulgaria). Hungarian premier Viktor Orban will once more be under ‘close scrutiny’ ensuing the adoption on March 11 of the so-called "fourth amendment" to the Constitution, wanted by Orban himself, triggering the alarmed reactions of the EU and the Council of Europe in terms of the respect of democracy, rule of the Law and fundamental rights. And while Austria, Finland and the Netherlands witness the strengthening of Eurosceptic political forces and stances, in the United Kingdom opposition to European unity is voiced by premier David Cameron, who promised to hold a national referendum on whether to opt out of the EU in 2017."Uniting the peoples". In this framework, the political developments in the Old Continent are attentively followed across the Atlantic. On many occasions the White House voiced its concerns over potentially disruptive phenomena. A few days ago, whilst looking forward to a "new belle époque" for Europe, the New York Times launched an appeal to US leadership: "Encourage the creation of a single European public and cultural space. Give us a vision for the peoples of Europe: make them dream of being one people". "If you sincerely aspire to a political Europe, then take up the responsibility with courage and a vision that goes beyond the next elections and the next economic bump in the road. Promote the Continent’s spiritual unity, organized around its diversity". Who knows if European Chancellors and premiers read the American press…