EUROPEAN ECONOMY
March 14-15 summit has raised hopes of growth and employment
The keyword of the spring European Council – not phrased by journalistic rendering – is "implementation", as stated in the summit Conclusions by EU heads of Government and State. The statement – the official seal to the two-day meeting in Brussels of EU heads of government and State – recognizes that national leaders – despite remarkable exceptions – did hardly nothing to implement past decisions, especially as relates to the Compact for Growth and Jobs adopted in June 2012. But EU 27 plus Croatia, (nearing full adhesion) acknowledge that the way to overcome the pitfalls of the recession cannot be confined to budgetary discipline: it entails boosting investments, real economy and employment.Stepping up efforts… As all Community summits, also the March 14-15 meeting was followed by remarks signalling "satisfaction" and "moderate optimism". In fact, it was a necessary step to verify the stability of accounts, budgetary convergence, to asses the tentative measures to counter recession and create new jobs. Moreover, the cause of Europe’s low gear is not to be sought in Brussels but in national capitals, where political action keeps pace with national surveys (see David Cameron’s Great Britain), forthcoming elections (Germany), or the pending question of public budgets (the last case was Cyprus), productive systems competitiveness (Italy), credit efficiency, and the dynamism of the private sector… Thus during the summit the president of the Commission, José Manuel Barroso launched yet another cry of alarm: "Implementation of the Compact for Growth and Jobs is too low and too slow", the 120 billion euros promised by Member States to kick-start the economy are still on paper. Interestingly, the opening of the EU Council states: "the stagnation of economic activity forecast for 2013 and the unacceptably high levels of unemployment emphasise how crucial it is to accelerate efforts to support growth as a matter of priority while pursuing growth-friendly fiscal consolidation". "The focus should be on the implementation of decisions taken" – here comes the focal point – "in particular as regards the Compact for Growth and Jobs", which, the leaders admit, has not yet been adopted. Rigour, growth and employment. Before leaving the summit, Barroso shared overarching reflections: "We come from an unprecedented crisis". Thus measures for recovery must equally take into account budgetary difficulties, the slowdown in economic activity and unemployment. "We must jointly undertake the path of rigour and growth"; "on this item there were no opposing blocs at the Council". Barroso thus denied that northern Europe, said to be more "virtuous" and competitive, intends to deny all access to the Southern and Eastern areas of the continent, where the main structural knots are concentrated: recessive GDP, low investment, and productivity, which in some cases is accompanied by greater political instability. The president of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, shared his awareness of the ongoing situation: "We are all fully conscious of the debate, the mounting frustrations and even despair of people". The solution has five strands, which compared to the past acknowledges also national differences. Van Rompuy asked that the "Conclusions" prioritize a "differentiated" and "growth-friendly" "fiscal consolidation". But it is equally urgent to "restore normal lending to the economy", promote competitiveness, combat unemployment, especially of the youth (hence the allocation of 6 million euro to initiatives for the youth), and modernize public administrations. The same issues are up for debate in the coming summits (four to go in 2013), along with other economic questions such as banking union, governance, energy, digital agenda, organization of the manufacturing sector. Towards the goldern rule? Thus despite all difficulties, during the March summit the EU will recover its cohesion along with the belief that some kind of budgetary "flexibility" will need to be undertaken to prompt growth, and also to avoid – as underlined by Italian premier Mario Monti, French president François Hollande and EP president Martin Schulz -that austerity, unemployment and low family budgets may "fuel populisms in Europe" (ample reference was made to Italy). German Chancellor Angela Merkel grasped Monti’s requests: "It is absolutely fair that Italy – she said – with a budgetary deficit under 3%", requested by EU regulations "be granted possibility of manoeuvre on public investments, as envisaged in the regulations of the pact on stability". It’s a half-consent to the "goldern rule", i.e. separating public investment from the parameters of the Stability Pact. In the coming weeks the Commission is called to advance a specific proposal to clarify which investments should be considered from this perspective, as the Pact fails to provide details to this regard.