Voting for reforms? ” “

Two years before the natural end of the legislature, Serbia will go to the polls to elect the members of the new Parliament. Last week the President of the Republic, Tomislav Nikolic, has officially dissolved Parliament announcing early elections on March 16, “in order to create the conditions for a wider support to the reform process aimed at the modernization of society”. The government’s intention. The situation that has arisen in Belgrade is unusual as the government steps down not because it is driven by popular discontent or problems within the majority of its members, but by its own will. Early elections were called by Alexander Vucic, leader of the Serbian Progress party (SNS, conservative), and Vice-Premier. “Early elections were in the air for several months and now that Vucic and his party can count on a strong support they have decided that the right moment has come”, Ljiljana Smailovic, political analyst and editor-in-chief of “Politics”, a leading national Serbian newspaper, told SIR Europe. The commentator added: “Such support is extraordinary and surprising, considering difficult living conditions in Serbia and widespread poverty”. Vucic’s personality. In the previous elections of 2012, the SNS had obtained 24.1% of all votes, only 2% more than the Democratic Party (DS), its primary rival, and it had been necessary to form a coalition government with the Socialists, whose leader, Ivica Dacic, was elected prime minister. Today, however, the latest polls assigned to the “progressives” 42.1%. This growing popularity is largely due to the personality of the party leader, Alexander Vucic, considered “the most powerful man in Serbia”. In addition to being Deputy Prime Minister in the current government, Vucic also heads the secret services and has contributed greatly to the fight on corruption and organized crime. He has led the complicated negotiations with Pristina for the historic agreement, signed last spring, and has worked hard for the launch of negotiations with the EU started on January 21. Although he was a member of the Milosevic government, that part of his past seems irrelevant for the Serbs today. Arrested tycoons. “People in Serbia mistrust politicians and the media alike, and there is a great sense of disappointment, but lately they have started to hope again”, Smailovic added. “All polls show that people want to trust Vucic’s party so he may govern the country with greater strength”. The Serbs are strongly impressed by the successes in the fight against tycoons, who have become very powerful in the country. “There have been significant arrests of oligarchs, who made money illegally during privatizations that took place after the year 2000. It now appears that the government and Vucic have decided to put an end to the power of the tycoons in Serbia”, added the political analyst. Urgent reforms. The official reason why Vucic has asked for early elections is the need for “urgent reforms, which require a stronger government”. They consists mostly of changes in the economic and financial sectors, such as a plan for investors, the future of state-owned enterprises, and new employment legislation. The latter, which stipulates greater freedom to dismiss employees and less protection for workers, has sparked off many protests in Belgrade and Novi Sad. “The unions also threatened a general strike – Smailovic pointed out – assuming that a government with greater support from the population could also act with a heavier hand”. The other political forces. According to recent surveys conducted by the agency Faktor plus, the Democratic Party is supported by 13.9% of all citizens, while the Socialist Party led by premier Dacic by 10.5%. The data, however, dates back to before the split of the Democratic Party, the main opposition formation, which occurred after former Serbian President Boris Tadic, honorary President of the Democrats, left the party to form a new political movement. Thus a weak and divided opposition will run in the elections. “In an short election campaign, this is another political gift to Alexander Vucic”, said Smailovic. Two other parties, the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) led by former Conservative Prime Minister Kostunica Voislav, with 6.8%, and the Liberal Democratic Party, with 5%, could overcome the 5% threshold needed to sit in parliament. A path already traced. There remains a clear intention to continue along the path leading to EU accession, supported by more than half of the Serbs. It is a challenging process that Belgrade would like to see completed by 2020. In this direction there is bound to be no change of course because only two of the parties, with low, non-relevant rates, are against EU membership. “Any political force that will sit in the government will have to continue following the path previously traced”, concluded Smailovic.