“Leaders punished by voters”

“It was a major defeat: the greatest defeat in local elections in the history of the Socialist Party. It began with very high numbers, with Municipalities run by the Socialists. Of course, a decrease was to be expected. But figures are dramatic”. On the aftermath of the local elections in France Laurent Bouvet, Professor of Political Sciences at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, author of “Le sens du peuple” (Gallimard, 2012), analysed the outcomes for SIR Europe. The dimension of the defeat of the left wing parties is summarised in the figures shared by Interior Minister Manuel Valls. Having stripped the right wing of 90 mayoralties in 2008, in the recent electoral round Socialists lost control of 155 cities with over 9 thousand inhabitants. The victory of Socialist Anne Hidalgo who beat Ump candidate Natalie Kosciusko-Morizet to the post of mayor of Paris is but a mean consolation. Figures speak for themselves. UMP is the first party in France with 45.9% against just 40.9% for the Socialists. The Front National of Marine Le Pen that gained 6.8%, now representing the third political force in the country, reached unprecedented success also. While the right wing is the true winner of the recent electoral round, France recorded its lowest turnout rates, amounting to 38.5% of the overall population. Professor, what are the reasons for the Socialists’ defeat? “It comes from afar. The Socialist party sits in the government and when you sit in the government elections are always a difficult moment of confrontation. Also in this case elections were a kind of referendum on the Socialists’ at the lead of the country, a moment of evaluation and criticism. This objective difficulty was coupled by a set of political problems, notably unfulfilled promises”. Which in particular? “Employment. The government promised to reduce unemployment rates, while they kept increasing. Not having a job is a serious problem for so many people. The second reason is to be found in the divergences among cabinet members. There was not enough coherence to govern the country. There have been also other problems that in France are called ‘societal’ issues, such as the ‘mariage pour tous’, homosexual marriages which sparked off hot debates across French society. When the law underwent parliament vote, people rallied in the street with the support of the right wing parties. All these events and these causes signalled the possibility of a severe electoral defeat”. Marine Le Pen was the other winner. What’s the reason for her success? “Marine Le Pen voices the claims of those who criticise the fact that left-wing and right-wing politics are the same. She also gains consensus on the European question and her criticism against the French government -whether right or left-winged – that refuses to break away from European policies, the euro in particular. Le Pen equally hails against the question of migration and Islam. She claims that the opening of borders to migrants, decided by the left wing, brings difficulties especially to France’s weaker brackets. The Front National accuses the elites – whether left or right wing – for not devoting attention to the lower classes, whose votes for FN were extremely high”. What is France’s message to Europe? “It unquestionably a message that signals a major difficulty vis a vis European policies aimed at deficit reduction, and financial budgets rebalancing. It’s hard to imagine a continuation of austerity policies without heavy impacts at parliament level or on the government adopting such measures. It has been happening all over Europe. I think Germany is the only exception”. How can Europe change its course? “I’m not a politician but an observer. I can only say that it’s hard to for a government to be successful in elections and be at the same time a government that enforces financial recovery measures”. High abstention rates were also recorded. What’s the reason for the low turnout? “It’s very hard to identify the reasons for abstention. In-depth surveys are needed, along with specific data. Thus while the analysis may be complex, it is evident that low turnout involved the left-wing constituency, which in 2012 had voted for Hollande. Their absence at the polls is a clear punishment against the present government and a disappointment compared to the vote casted two years ago”.