The EU changes its political regime ” “while the UK grows distant

Last week’s European summit, held in Brussels June 26-27, will be recorded in history. By designating Jean-Claude Juncker as a candidate to the lead of the Commission the European Council has approved a change in the political management of the EU. As a consequence, there are greater risks that the UK may step back. The heads of Government and State have thus appointed their candidate at the lead of the Executive. In turn, the European Parliament is called to cast its vote on July 16, and the outcomes are known. Any other development would come as a surprise, as the presidents of the main parliamentary groups, which include the EPP and the Socialists & Democrats, have agreed to support the candidate from Luxembourg. On the evening of July 16 the members of the European Council will gather for a new summit (a “business dinner”), to complete the picture of Community institutions’ leadership with at least two candidates: that of the successor of Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council, and that of the person who will take office as High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Vice-President of the Commission, thus succeeding Catherine Ashton. Considering the re-election of Martin Schulz as president of the European Parliament (on July 1st in Strasbourg), it seems likely that at least one of these personalities will be a woman and that another (or the same) will represent a central European country. The chances that Italy may assume another relevant role – which would couple that of the president of the European Central Bank – are low. But who knows… Also political balances ought to be preserved. The two positions that are still vacant will not be filled by candidates from the Socialist coalition. Indeed, the present geographic and political reflections don’t come as a surprise. In fact, such factors have always guided the crucial phase of the renewal of European Union political leadership. It’s a sleight of hand which characterized European integration since its onset, and which does not differ from national procedures, especially in Member States that have a federal architecture. However, the process that has led to Junker’s appointment signals a huge difference. Through a broad interpretation to the Lisbon Treaties, European political parties’ decisions are imposed on those of the heads of Government and State in the process leading to the appointment of the future president of the Commission. By introducing a system of leading candidates – the “Spitzenkandidaten” – as the natural candidates to these positions, the EU has in fact changed its pace. From now on political parties’ frontrunners come first. Election results for the renewal of the European Parliament will represent the grounds suggesting to the Council the candidate that will be presented to the European Parliament as President of the Commission. The future president of the Commission will thus depend more on the choice of a given political party – or, in all likelihood, on the parties whose alliances represent a majority at the European Parliament. There ensues that the decisions of Council members will play a minor role in the candidate’s election. In the conclusions of last week’s summit the members of the European Council have tried to recover their decision-making powers through a diplomatic formula. Once the new Commission has taken office they will “examine the process for the appointment of the president of the Commission, in full respect of European Treaties”. However, the chances of returning to the point of departure are low. The public opinion would not accept it and Parliament would not tolerate it. It will therefore be acknowledged with surprise that the EU has changed its political nature even though these changes are not envisaged in the Treaties, without having realized it and without the decision of a democratically elected government majority. It’s rather strange. Such change in nature entails increased chances that the United Kingdom may decide to exit the “Common home”. “Small England will be alone with her shadows”, wrote former British Minister Chris Huhne on “The Guardian”, fathoming the possibility that his Country might exit the EU. We could add: “And the European Union will have lost its status as world power before having accomplished it”. External crises will keep the new president of the Commission busy to the same extent as his predecessor, José Manuel Barroso, has been engaged in addressing questions regarding the euro. Without the United Kingdom the EU risks being seriously downsized on the international scenario.