If it’s war that deals with us

The Islamic State advances on Libyan territory. The violence is escalating: the killing of 21 Egyptian Copts it is a tragic, blatant evidence of it. The Libyan government and the Egyptian armed forces are trying to fight back while in Europe there are questions about what to do … while an international armed intervention has not been ruled out. As feared, this development of the Libyan crisis was predictable. If in 2011 Sarkozy and Cameron had treasured the lessons that history tries to impart us, they would have realized that a military intervention such as the one against the Gaddafi regime would have led to an extension of the civil war, resulting in a dramatic increase in the number of victims and prolonged instability in the country. It was decided to ignore the knowledge available for a mixed set of reasons, including the attempt by Sarkozy to revive his image as a leading decision-maker ahead of the presidential elections (eventually won by Hollande), the desire to counterbalance the weight of Germany on the European scene, and to remove Italy’s influence on Libyan oil and gas. This exercise of politics marked by neo-colonialist shades, implemented with a series of massive air strikes against Gaddafi’s army, without the hint of a reconstruction project for a stable, efficient, and possibly, democratic state system, allowed for the transformation of Libya in a sort of Mediterranean iSomalia in miniature. Now, for over three years, in front of southern European shores lies a territory where state institutions are disintegrating, where various armed factions are engaged in clashes and have ho have no intention of reaching a permanent agreement, while none of them is able to establish a new, clear political order. In these conditions, it was obvious that if there had been a powerful and determined military actor, it could have reasonably sought to fill the void, taking a hold of Libya and of its important deposits of natural resources. As we have painfully learned in the past year, now that actor exists, it is well armed, with an expansion project that extends from Casablanca to Iran and uses a combination of guerrilla and terrorist tactics as old as the history of man along with technological tools. This is what we know so far. What we don’t know is how European countries intend to respond to this challenges, which is equally internal and external. It is appropriate to speak of European States since once again it is evident that until now the European Union has been a virtual actor on the international scenario. But unfortunately also many European States appear to have lost their ability to engage in purely political reflections, taking into account international security. At the most, some States can engage in gunfire, but their inability to gauge actions and, notably, to develop long-term plans, is under everyone’s eyes to see. The long-lasting inertia regarding the Ukrainian crisis testifies to this, for the umpteenth time. Rooted within wellbeing and distant from world peripheries, marked by rampant violence and poverty, many Europeans facing the problems of their personal budgets are not interested in reflecting on what surrounds them, but a time may come – Trotsky used to say – where it is war that takes care of us. Fortunately, Isis is not yet capable to deal directly with Europe, but if it managed to consolidate its rule over Libya it would gain advantages from the military and strategic angles, in terms of image and economy, thanks to oil trade carried out through unofficial channels. Certainly, Isis is a declared enemy of the entire West, but before embarking on a possible intervention in Libya, it is essential to think carefully about its final goal, on how to achieve it and with which Countries. For example, it would be essential to act under the umbrella of the United Nations and with the support of other Arab states. It would in fact be a real war, and if the intervention were to be decisive it would not last long, as it would have to ensure the establishment of a new political-institutional order. It is advisable to think carefully and with a preventive approach.