Elections in France: ” “Untangling the knots ” “

An “out-loud” reflection on the meaning of the elections of Sunday March 22 regarding the voting trends in the Country, the rise of the centre-right, the missed “victory” (also thanks to the election system) of the extreme right, the disappointing results of the left currently guiding the nation: France is attentively examining the results of the first round of the departmental elections and is projected towards the second, decisive ballot that will take place Sunday March 29, which will decide the fate of local administrations and – regardless to say – with an eye to the regional elections of next December and on the presidential vote of 2017. In the meantime,- mindful of the fact that the first ballot delivered only partial results – it can be said that the left is entrenched in the south-western provinces, the Front National gains consensus in the north and in the area of Marseilles, while the Neo-Gaullists, with their centrist UDI allies, are the winners in the heart of the Country. The first round of the departmental elections in France thus signals a new picture compared to the last elections (presidential and European elections alike). And most of all, it delivers clear political signals. First of all, the UMP of Nicolas Sarkozy, along with the Union of Democrats, gained almost a third of all votes (29.4%) and made free and easy with local administrations. In fact, the former President of the Republic, defeated three years ago by his socialist opponent François Hollande, is relaunching his candidacy for the post at the Elysee in 2017. He will have to ensure that voters forget his problems with the law and the various inquiries against him, along with the fact that he had been rejected by the people in 2012. But for an experienced, shrewd politician as “Sarko” the challenge is far from impossible. Secondly, it can be said that Marine Le Pen and the FN featured a very wide consensus across the country (25.5%; perhaps the first party, if we consider that the vote of the centre-right went to the UMP-UDI coalition) bringing home a quarter of the votes cast. But it is equally true that the announced “black tide” has not reached the dimensions promised, or feared – according to the points of view. In this sense the second round will help clarify the general orientation of the electorate. As of now, however, it can be noted that even in times of shouted and “aggressive” politics, those who like Le Pen, keep the tone of the political struggle on a loud key, ultimately ends up terrorizing voters, losing a consistent number of potential supporters along the way (a message which could also apply to neighbouring countries and to the whole of Europe). Third element: the Socialist Party of Hollande and of Prime Minister Valls is at 21.8%, back on its feet compared to 14% of the European elections of last May, but still well below the rate that would be expected from a government party, which is now apparently called to a serious examination of conscience. As for the ballot on March 29 there are many uncertainties: the FN will be running in half of the “cantons” (electoral districts) contended. But while the Socialists and UDI have already declared their “Republican” vote, that is, that they will support the candidate who will face a representative of the extreme-right, Sarkozy instead chose the formula “ni … ni …”, i.e. neither with the lepenists nor with the Socialists. However, this decision is causing discontent in many environments concerned by the advance of the xenophobic, anti-European nationalism of the Front National. Ahead of the vote of March 22 there are still two unknown factors. In fact, it cannot be ignored that only half of the electorate went to the polls. Many political analysts said the results were good. However, French political leaders should seriously take into account the gap separating the “citoyens” and the democratic institutions. Moreover, the French political system seems headed towards a right-center-left tripartism with – for the time being – three important representatives: Le Pen, Sarkozy and Hollande. Which of them has the credentials to be a new De Gaulle or a new Mitterrand, an all-round leader in the round who can unite the country, strengthening the action of the government and giving it a more central role in the European scenario? Undoubtedly, next Sunday’s runoff will not supply the answer to this question.