“Out of the EU? The risk does exist”

In four weeks history could change forever, with Great Britain outside the European Union and Scotland separated from England and Wales. Peter Hennessy, renowned contemporary British historian, appointed Lord in the UK, traced an unprecedented scenario, which is also disquieting under certain aspects. Raised in a large family of Irish origin, in a social housing home in northern London, Hennessy makes no projections. However, in his interview with Silvia Guazzetti for SIR Europe he said: “As a historian, my job is to explain how we got where we are today, not to predict the future”. Unless England were left with Wales and Northern Ireland only … “This could actually happen after May 7”. Lord Hennessy, is it true that the upcoming elections are the most uncertain in the history of the United Kingdom and that they could radically change the face of the Country? “Indeed. If the Conservatives return to power in 2017 David Cameron will give the green light to a referendum on our presence in Europe. And if we should decide to break away we might be unable to return for a long period of time, perhaps forever. With England and Wales outside the European Union also Scotland may decide to be independent and ours would be a very different country. This scenario is unlikely, albeit possible”. What would the UK without Europe be like? “It would have very narrow horizons. It would be closed in itself, angry and financially poorer”. The English Constitution stipulates that no Prime Minister can “embarrass the Queen” namely, it is forbidden to involve the queen in the political arena forcing her to take a stand. Will this tradition continue also next May when Great Britain risks being left without a government for a very long time because, as the surveys show, neither the Labour nor the Conservative Party could have a majority to rule alone? “There is no risk of an instrumental political use of the Queen nor of her being dragged into a political controversy to support either one of the two parties. In case there isn’t a clear majority, the queen will entrust the outgoing prime minister with the task of forming a government and if he should fail she would hand this task the political leader with the higher chances of obtaining a majority in the House of Commons. We might end up with a ‘hanging Parliament’ (whereby no party has enough votes to govern alone, ed.’s note). In that case the government would need the support of smaller parties either in a coalition government, as it happened five years ago, or with external votes. In this case the leaders of the various parties would have to make an effort to find a way out, keeping the queen out of the dispute. A major principle of British hanging parliaments is that the outgoing prime minister must keep his post until his successor is appointed. Only in this case he would submit his resignation to the queen”. The Constitution was changed five years ago with the adoption of the “fixed term parliament act”, which stipulates that a government’s term in office must last five years starting on the previously fixed national elections date. Are further amendments expected this time? “The fixed term parliament Act made things more complicated because a parliament vote of confidence requires a motion with a specific wording formula. It’s harder to lose with the vote of confidence in Parliament and it requires more time. It’s the first time we face this situation. From now on it will be easier to form a coalition, but it will require twice the amount of time compared to the past. Cameron has also promised his MPs a vote of approval in case he decides to form another coalition. This didn’t happen last time and it will lengthen the time taken even if we ended up with a coalition similar to the one of 2010”. Do you think that UKIP – the party that wants to bring the United Kingdom outside the European Union and that at present counts on 12% of the British electorate – will go to power after the next elections? “No, this is almost impossible. And I don’t think their candidates will be appointed ministers in the government”. What do you think of the election campaign conducted until now? “Nobody has mentioned the theme of Great Britain’s place in the world! Politicians think that foreign policy and defence don’t earn them votes, but when a country is in such a difficult situation, in such an uncertain world, at least some of these questions should be taken into consideration. Unfortunately this is not the case. There is only talk of immigrants, the economy and national health”.