EU and public opinion ” “I wish, I don’t wish…

Which element influences the public opinion the most, the first-hand perception of reality or the image of reality filtered by the media? What counts more: a real figure – such as unemployment – or the fears stemming from a given cultural and political environment, loaded with alarmism, as is the case of the immigration phenomenon? These questions involve policy-makers, news analysts, pollsters, experts in collective behaviours. Reading the outcomes of the latest Eurobarometer survey (Standard Survey Spring 2015), released on July 31, some doubts find an answer, while other questions take shape. The polling institute of the European Commission announced the results of a survey conducted between 16 and 27 May last, interviewing more than 31 thousand people in 34 countries, namely, 28 acceding States, five candidate countries (the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania) plus the Turkish Cypriot community in the island not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. What are the most visible results? It is quite striking that EU citizens view “immigration as the major challenge facing the EU currently”. Accordingly, migration is the number one issue, topping unemployment, which in some countries constitutes 25% of the total workforce (nearly 13% in Italy), leaving half of all youths young under25 jobless and without earnings. Delving into the details of the survey, we learn that with 38% (+14 points compared to the previous survey conducted at the end of 2014) migration largely outweighs the economic situation (27%, -6 points), unemployment (24%, -5 points) as wells as the public finances of Member States (23%, -2 points) in the “nightmares” of European citizens. The arrival of refugees on the shores of the Mediterranean and on the eastern borders of the European community “is the number one most frequently cited concern in 20 Member States reaching peaks in Malta (65%) and Germany (55%)”. At EU level, since November 2014, according to the sample of respondents to the Eurobarometer survey, also the fear of terrorism (17%, +6 points) has “increased significantly”, nurtured by the attacks in Paris, the events in Brussels, the winds of war between Ukraine and Russia and by Isis in particular. Clearly, migration and terrorism, the two issues likely to “hit the news” and make the headlines on TV and online, are the most frequently mentioned by respondents. Yet it should be recognized that the objective problems related to such important topics do not materially affect the lives of all citizens. Or at least they affect them in different ways. The “burden” of the reception of migrants and anti-terror security is mainly in the hands of the governments and of citizens that are most exposed to the arrivals of refugees (such as the populations of migrant boat landings areas in the Mediterranean), or affected by the security measures to counter possible terrorist attacks (airports, places of worship, newspaper offices and other “sensitive sites”). But the shortage of jobs and unattained general economic recovery involves practically all citizens, because it raises troubling questions about families, about the future of young people, the production system, consumption, living standards. Two other observations on European public opinion surveyed by Eurobarometer concern the future of the economy and the image of the European Union. In the first case, “expectations for the economy are improving and support for the euro remains stable”. In particular, “the expectations of Europeans for the national economic situation remain rather stable, with more than one in four of them (26%, +4 points) being optimistic about the next twelve months, while 48% expect the situation to remain the same. Pessimistic expectations decrease sharply and reach 21% (-7 points)”. The number of Europeans who think that the impact of the crisis on jobs has already reached its peak (48%, +4 points) is now clearly more important than those who think ‘the worst is still to come’ (42%, -4 points)”. Positive views on the euro remain stable (57% in the EU overall, 69% in the euro area). Moreover, “the number of Europeans who say they have a positive image of the EU has risen from 39% last November to 41% in May 2015” (not much, to say to the truth), “while 38% have a neutral image and only 19% a negative image” (down from 22% in November 2014). The number of Europeans who say they trust the European Union has also gone up to 40%. Does this mean more confidence in Community Europe? Eurobarometro registers opinions, feelings expressed also regarding the ways in which the questions are posed. As regards real confidence in politics we will wait and see the outcomes of national elections, while the EU should step up efforts aimed at answering expectations of its citizens.