European economy is back on track. Time to focus on families and employment

All figures register a positive sign: “the economy remains on recovery course.” Last week the European Commission presented, with cautiously optimistic tones, the “Autumn Economic Forecast” which – through a set of “macro” indicators – takes stock of the situation of the productive and trade system in EU 28, along with other factors such as GDP, national budgets and job market performance. It is a tool to monitor the euro-zone and establish whether all Member States comply with their commitments aimed at the economic and financial stability of the “common home”, along with the implementation of reforms designed to strengthen the single market and increase competitiveness with respect to world powers (starting with the US), emerging economies and other world regions.
In fact, the figures presented by Commissioner Pierre Moscovici leave room for hope. Considering the different paces of growth among EU 28 – there is an abyss, to mention a few, between the UK and Greece, between Germany and Italy, between Poland and Portugal –,

GDP is forecast to grow this year as well as in 2016 and in 2017

(the Forecasts cover a three-year period); investments grow; better employment performance supports household real disposable income thereby reviving consumption. Inflation is equally in recovery mode (signalling, albeit within certain limits, an economy in motion); States’ annual deficits are virtually under control, while the exponential growth of national debt recorded during the darkest years of the crisis, namely, from 2008 to 2013,

seems to have stopped. At national level, Germany continues to emerge as the engine of Europe(with an annual growth slightly under 2%, while the Unites States remain steadily above 2.7%), the United Kingdom continues progressing over 2%; growth is forecast also for France and Italy in the three-year period. Finally, even the countries most marked by the recession, namely Greece, Spain and Portugal, are on the recovery track. Ireland, on its knees owing to the sovereign debt crisis, will close 2015 with a GDP growth of 6%; Poland is in line with + 3.5%; well, or pretty well, the Nordic countries (Scandinavia, Baltic States) and Europe (Croatia is also raising his head). Moreover, problems linger on, starting with the previously mentioned internal imbalances in the EU and, a fortiori, in the single currency area (19 states), whose solidity would require balanced performance. Furthermore, competitive advantages so far represented by the modest price of oil and by a “weak” euro currency (prompting exports) are gradually diminishing.

At the same time, new challenges are appearing at global level:

several emerging economies grow at a slower pace (eyes are focused on China), while political instability in too many parts of the world carries dark clouds that are hovering also over economic systems and trade.
The impact of the overall positive trend will need to be measured also on daily life.

Indeed, the picture of a European economy that is timidly exiting from the crisis is not enough to restore hope and courage to 500 million EU citizens who have personally experienced, for many years, a crisis that caused the loss of millions of jobs, that brought poverty and hardships, that led hundreds of thousands of enterprises to shut down, triggered imbalances in banking systems and State finances. From this perspective, the Commission pointed out: the work done at national and European level is not finished. We must continue implementing reforms, increasing employment within a modernized production framework, thereby promoting households’ financial health and helping businesses. And, again, it is necessary to invest in education and therefore on the young, on inclusive welfare systems, on innovative and sustainable economy at social and environmental level, on renewable energy… The road, evidently, it is still long. But it must be pursued without delays or excuses.