There is a negotiator in Libya. The economy is to be preferred to weapons

Fayez al-Serraj arrived in Libya a few days ago to take office as Prime Minister of a national unity government that was formed at the end of one-year-long negotiations between the delegations of the governments of Tripoli and Tobruk, supported by the UN and by the European Union but not officially accepted by the parliaments of the two governments that had sent their delegations to carry out the talks. Indeed, al-Serraj’s chances of obtaining concrete support and acceptance on the part of the numerous groups currently waging war against one another in Libya, with over 200 different militias, had been largely questioned.

No doubt, it’s an arduous undertaking, but al-Serraj has already registered some success. First of all, the Islamist government of Tripoli is breaking apart. Its leader, Khalifa Gwell, has fled the city, and several mayors of large and small towns that were previously under his control, such as Sabratha, Zawya and Zuara, have declared their support to the new premier. Second, al-Serraj has gained the support of the governor of the Libyan Central Bank, which controls over 70 billion of reserves, which so far has continued to pay several salaries, inputting precious liquidity into the Country’s ailing economy. Third, also the oil guards and the Libyan oil company, which represent a key player for the future of Libya, have lined up with the UN-backed premier. Whoever controls the oil fields also controls the wealth of the Country and has the power of deciding its international interlocutors.

Some observers have justly remarked that in a landscape such as Libya’s, whose power pulverized amidst thousands of different players who base their pretenses on ethnical, territorial and religious grounds, often opposing each other with the use of weapons

 

the new premier is lacking a strong army that may effectively defend him and eventually defeat the militias that should reject the new political order.

However, these first steps show that al-Sarraj is perfectly aware of this weakness and that he decided to deal with it by playing strategically, without underestimating it. As he cannot impose himself by force on the violent Libyan political environment, al-Serraj has decided to tackle the issue indirectly by starting from the economy, to eventually tackle the political aspects. He is aware that Libya is potentially a very rich Country. He believes that the majority of the population is exasperated by a situation of permanent insecurity, and that most of the people want stability and economic development. Resorting to weapons has destroyed Libya. But weapons build nothing. The government of al-Serraj was created as a result of a laborious diplomatic effort and it seems that the new prime minister intends to continue along the same lines. He held meetings with many local authorities. He will need to exercise the art of negotiation. And now that he’s holding the keys of the Libyan economy he will be able to promise his counterparts a new beginning for the Country’s economy that may produce wealth as during the times of Gaddafi, but with fairer distribution. It’s a very demanding commitment. But it’s not impossible.

 

Almost certainly some of the players, notably ISIS, will try to sabotage this process at all costs

 

And at a certain point also al-Serraj will need a real army. Indeed, it would be better for everyone if this army were Libyan, not foreigner. The international community should immediately show its availability, provide clear incentives, be willing to contribute to Libya’s economic recovery and support social development. The possibility of providing military support to al-Serraj, if required, cannot be excluded. But it will be necessary to closely monitor the Premier’s activity and advance the responsibility of the Libyan people. Usually, external interventions without long-term political strategies don’t end well.