Political analysis
Four official candidates for EU adhesion (Montenegro, ex Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, Albania, Serbia) and two potential ones (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo): the future of these States, and of their respective peoples, also depends on their attachment to the European Union. However, the hopes of Euro-enthusiasts are starting to ebb, while nationalisms call for new walls. The importance of cross-border partnerships supported by the EU
The Western Balkans represent the most problematic area of Europe, exception made for Ukraine. Indeed, all six Countries of the Western Balkans – namely the four official candidates (Montenegro, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Albania and Serbia) and the two potential candidates (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo) – after Croatia’s adhesion in 2013, are on the track of a gradual integration in the EU. But today neither of the two main parties involved in this partnership seem to be too happy about the process. On the one side, the EU is not at all satisfied with the progress made so far, evidently for its excessively slow pace and in most cases the result of blatant pressure on the part of Brussels, not to mention of veritable threats or even, in some cases, of ultimatum. On the other side there is the civil, intellectual part of the societies of the Countries in this region, namely the “Euro-enthusiasts”, who appear to have lost much of their patience and hope, initially reposed in the ability and determination of their respective political élites to finally fulfil the deeply-yearned promise of a “better life”, whatever was meant by it. Euro-enthusiasts criticise a number of EU bodies and representatives for being excessive bureaucratic and “scarcely sensitive” and for “looking down” on this region, lacking a sincere yearning to become a part of an extremely complex reality such as that of the Balkan region. They are accused of having been reluctant to address the core of the problem in due time and on too many occasions, and of not having seized the right moment or adopted the appropriate means to support – for the benefit of all those involved – the democratic development of the Western Balkans. It is equally true that from the outside it has never been easy – and it still isn’t – to grasp the true roots of problems that date back to the past and that remain unsolved, fuelling prejudice and stereotyping against these Countries and their peoples. The global economic crisis, Brexit, Greece’s economic and financial collapse, ISIS, immigration, the growth of anti-European political forces, namely nationalist and centrifugal forces in the old and new EU member Countries, the situation in Ukraine… all of these factors threaten to revive “Eurosceptic”, populist and right-wing factions in the Balkan Countries that twenty years ago sparked off the most tragic, bloody European conflict of post-WWII era, which are now seeking the support of other Countries and of the political forces in their Slav and Orthodox “brother” Countries.
What are the characterising features of these Countries’ political scenario today? In October 2016 on parliament election day, Montenegro – that opened over two thirds of the negotiating chapters launched in the EU adhesion process, leaning towards NATO, that would make it the 29th member of the Alliance – underwent an attempted putsch on the part of political parties that oppose its joining the Alliance, supported, according to news gathered so far, by Russian secret services. In the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, in addition to the unsolved denomination with Greece , the political situation has grown tense over the past months owing to repeated unsuccessful attempts to form a new government as a result of the early election that intensified the ongoing national and identity issues between Macedonians and Albanians, the two major ethnic groups. Serbia, which opened the first four chapters, thereby initiating adhesion negotiations, elected the new President of the Republic a few days ago, that is, the Prime Minister in-office. Although he failed to obtain a sweeping majority vote, he is the object of ongoing demonstrations to protest against alleged electoral irregularities, despite the hopes that a politician of his calibre could manage to find a definitive solution to the question of Kosovo’s independence in Serbia. The State of Kosovo has not yet been recognised by five EU Countries (Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Spain) and by two Countries in the region (Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina), and has not yet solved the problem of the ratification of the border Agreement with Montenegro, critical to the liberalization of visas for its own citizens. Kosovo’s and Serbia’s integration is closely linked to the outcome of their mutual relations and to bilateral dialogue. On its part Bosnia-Herzegovina is marked by all the flaws of the 1995 Dayton Agreement, which led to the creation of two separate entities that in the course of the past twenty years were never fully integrated and whose fragile balance is under the yoke of Serbia’s threat of a referendum on the Country’s separation, that would divide it in two. Finally, Albania, the only NATO member Country in the region, seems to be experiencing a less turbulent phase compared to the others, despite a less than enviable economic situation. Moreover, the EU is encouraging all of these Countries – i.e. 15 million people – to cooperate in a number of cross-border programs, representing the first simultaneously-completed leg – albeit non official – leading to full European integration.