editorial" "
In May 2004 the current fifteen countries of the European Union will grow to twenty-five, while the entry of two further countries is “envisaged” in 2007. Also at the economic level, no spectacular results are expected in the short term: a forecast confirmed by the intermediate report on economic and social cohesion presented in Brussels in recent days. EU Commissioner Pedro Solbes recently declared to the German periodical Handelsblatt that “at least twenty years, on average will be needed before the ten new members of the EU reach the economic level of the present member states”. The data to confirm this statement of Pedro Solbes are disturbing. The European Commission has just published its “Autumn Economic Forecasts 2002-2004 for the candidate countries”. In this report it is suggested, for example, that “the intensive restructuring processes over the last ten years have caused a reduction in employment”. In the ten countries aspiring to EU membership, as a whole, employment in fact dropped by 0.9% in 2001 and by 0.7% in 2002. A slight recovery is expected in 2003. According to a report of the European Commission, of all the candidate countries only Slovenia and Cyprus are in a position to come to terms immediately with the competitive situation deriving from the fact that the EU represents, and has done since 1 January 1993, a genuine single market. Alain Beuve-Mery, in an article in Le Monde on 10 December 2002, added that “the rest i.e. the countries other than Slovenia and Cyprus will have to overcome administrative shortcomings especially in the sector of justice, weaknesses in the campaign against corruption, fraud and economic criminality and, last but not least, the obstacle of some still uncompleted industrial restructuring”. While the ten countries in question represent 20% of the population of the current 15 member states of the EU, altogether they only account for 4% of the EU’s current GDP. This does not necessarily mean, however, that a problem is arising, since, thanks to their competitiveness and to the development of their internal markets according to the findings of the Centre of International Studies and Research (CERI) “The economies of the countries of Central Europe have not collapsed, indeed they have only suffered relatively from the crisis that has struck their Western neighbours, despite their strong dependence on the EU”. Clearly, still present in the minds of observers is the memory of the difficult assimilation made necessary by Germany’s incorporation of the Länder of the former East Germany. In this context, Germany, also due to this, among other causes, is suffering from serious problems in its public sector and risks being unable to fulfil what is required by the Stability and Growth Pact. In these conditions, the aid that may come from affluent Europe to the benefit of new members will not only be meagre, but more than one country will experience traumatic upheaval as a consequence of this integration. However, having said that, is there any viable alternative? Would not an eastern belt of beggar nations in Europe bring with it deep instability? Probably we are worrying to an excessive degree: Joachim Fraenkel reminds us in his book “What Government for Europe?” (2002): “The European Community, which is moving blindly and falteringly, is putting in place, gradually, new structures within a complex world that contains within itself multiple forces that are advancing towards synthesis”.
