Europe, the Berlin model

Stability, recovery, Europe: Angela Merkel could follow these three paths after the much anticipated – albeit surprising – victory of the CDU-CSU party in the parliamentary elections of September 22nd. National surveys – notably the atmosphere registered on the eve of the vote in Berlin, Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne… – had predicted the electoral success. Nonetheless such a resounding victory that secured plebiscite support to the iron Chancellor, on her way to the lead of the country for the third time, with a political longevity comparable to that of the “noble fathers” of the Christian-Democrats Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl, was unimagined.The outcome of the polls is a confirmation that the Country’s political stability brought about by Merkel since 2005 has helped Germany address the heavy crisis with determination, responsibility and yearning for recovery. Above all, during the past three-four years the Chancellor adopted a mix of rigor, sacrifices, but also investments and competitiveness, to the extent of restoring renewed growth, which although contained, has revitalized the job market and invigorated national enterprises at global level. It is the same formula that Berlin imposed upon Europe: “blood and tears” – and workers, families, consumers, as well as savers across several European nations are familiar with it – to save the single currency, implement bank bailouts, avoid the dismantling of the single market and on the uphill road, lay the grounds for recovery – of which a glimpse can already be seen at the end of the tunnel. The elections for the Bundestag, however, leave injured and missing people on the battlefield. Merkel’s allies, the liberal hardliners of the FDP, face parliamentary exile; Socialists & Democrats (SPD) recover a few more seats although they are largely distanced from CDU-CSU; Greens and Linke (left-wing) appear to be unnecessary to any coalition. The anti-euro Alliance for Germany (AFD) failed to reach the 5% threshold and is therefore now excluded from the Bundestag. It is likely that Merkel will choose a coalition government that includes the SPD (Grand Coalition), as she did during her first government. This decision would be well received in many European capitals: Merkel’s intransigence would be tempered by a greater attention to measures for growth and welfare, and, not least, for that Europe which, as of today, depends even more on the moves of Berlin.During her electoral campaign “Angie” – as young Christian-Democrats acclaimed her – said: “Germany is strong only with Europe and the euro”. While the ex-President of the European Parliament Hans-Gert Poettering, who is close to the Chancellor, as soon as the electoral results were released, said: “It’s a victory of Europe”. In fact, at national or European level nobody dislikes Germany’s solidity: a safe political guide in the heart of the continent, distant miles away from anti-Europeanists (that plummeted in Germany’s elections). Surely enough, in Athens and in Madrid it is hoped that Angela Merkel’s determination, with which she set the pace of the European Union and of the ECB, will deliver the expected results. Paris, Rome and Warsaw follow Germany’s developments with equal attention, in the awareness that they are bound to impact the entire EU. It is expected that the Chancellor, with the support of her Socialist and Democrat allies, will show that her primary concerns are not confined to Germany’s interests, and that her horizon will extend to include also Brussels. It is equally expected that Merkel’s presence and capacity will be felt in the realm of foreign affairs, making up for an absence of many years. The world doesn’t end at the German nor at the EU borders: the situation in Syria and in the Middle East, the “Arab Spring”, the fight on terrorism, the run-up of the BRICs and the destiny of numerous poor Countries cannot leave the German giant indifferent. A last reflection on the outcome of the German polls: the two major parties CDU-CSU and SPD jointly represent two thirds of all votes. They are all pro-European parties that countered the nationalistic, populist and xenophobic drifts hovering across Europe, gaining increasing support in almost all of Europe. The message arriving from Germany is that good politics – despite hesitancies, mistakes and short-sightedness – is the best guarantee against the success of anti-politics, which has been rewarded by a large number of French, British, Italian, Scandinavian, Greek and East-European voters. Also from this perspective Angela Merkel leaves a mark in contemporary Europe.