Why is Europe ageing?

On the wake of the research carried out by the demographers from the Max Planck Institute of Rostock, Germany, on the heavy consequences of the economic crisis on birth-rates in the “old continent”, SIR Europe interviewed Jörg Althammer, Professor of Economics Ethics at the Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, director of the Institute for Marriage and family in society (Zfg), and Consultant of the Commission on Economic and Social questions of the German Bishops’ Conference.Your colleague demographers highlighted the drastic fall in birth-rates over the past years. Was this unexpected? “Birth rates’ decrease was foreseeable in a situation marked by economic difficulties. However, the authors point out that it could be limited in time, which means that the births that have not taken place in recent years could occur in the near future, in more favourable circumstances. It’s a process we experienced already in Germany, in during the time of difficulties linked to the Country’s reunification”. Weren’t plummeting birth-rates an ongoing trend already? “It is necessary to distinguish between the long run developments, whereby in many countries birth rates have decreased starting in the 1970s, and the further decreases in due to take place in the short term, highlighted in the researches. The first process is affected by factors such as reconciling work and family life, notably women with high qualifications. In countries with lower birth rates (Spain, Portugal, Italy) it has been noted that such reconciliation is more difficult, and viceversa (as happens in Sweden or France.) The question today is not whether to have a family and children: other factors – which include the economic situation and unemployment rates – affect people’s plan to have a child”. In the past children represented the workforce, but productive systems have changed… “Once, having children was also a way to ensure the care of the elderly. But today’s social protection systems have assumed this role, therefore the personal decision to have children is guided by thoughts on the good of the child. The need for a progeny is inscribed in the survival of societies, but today this need is strictly bound to our welfare systems: the more people in the job market, the less the per capita costs to ensure their performance. Lower birth rates thus become a problem, as in the case of Italy, that will need to undertake drastic reforms of its welfare systems. Also since it is very unlikely that policies will prompt more births”. What will happen to Europe? “Europe will certainly grow old. We cannot forecast how this will affect its role in the world: we cannot predict it. It’s a political – and not an economic – problem. It cannot be said that an ageing population is less productive. There are young societies with a very limited productivity. Moreover, demographic changes must be accompanied by appropriate political reforms, so that long-time workers may be retrained and upgraded. It’s crucial to ensure that young people enter the job market. It is to be expected that European population will decrease to such an extent that even new migration flows won’t be enough to balance the situation.. But it’s hard to predict the evolution of factors such as immigration or life expectancy…”. Why can’t immigration be a “solution?” Migrant women rapidly adapt to the fertility rates of the Country in which they settle down. It was evident in the case of Turkish immigrants in Germany in the 1960s. While German women had more children, with the generation of Turkish women born in Germany the number of children has become the same as that of German women. But it must be acknowledged that the demographic situation would be much worse without immigration”. How much does secularization affect these demographic trends? “The fact of having a religious vision and an adhesion to the faith is a factor with evident consequences. It can be seen in my Country, marked by a remarkable difference between Catholics and atheists as relates to fertility levels. This is also true for Muslims. On the other hand, I wouldn’t identify the de-Christianization of Europe as the only cause of declining birth rates. Social transformations are always very complex and are not univocally related to secularization”.