Ukraine, three possible scenarios

The crisis in Ukraine is at a crossroads. Demonstrations in Kiev against President Yanukovych have been ongoing for the past two months and now violence has erupted on the streets of the capital. To the many arrests occurred over the past weeks must be added hundreds of casualties and at least five deaths among the demonstrators, one among the police forces. The situation is tense and will remain such for a long time. There are three possible ways out in the next few days, if not in the next few hours: the restoration of order by the government, the acceptance of the demands of the opposition, civil war.The wave of protests, which initially had a strong pro-European connotation and had broken out following the decision of Yanukovych not to sign the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, now has taken on the typical features of an anti-government uprising. Anchorage to the EU system was certainly important for the opposition, but it was mainly because it represented a way out of the Russian sphere of influence and a means to reform Ukraine’s political and judicial institutions accused of being corrupt, and subservient to a poorly democratic oligarchy. After two months of total closure to the instances of the protestors, European issues have now slipped into the background: the demands of the protesters focus on the president’s resignation and early elections. Even the attempt made a few days ago by Yanukovych to sacrifice one of his closest collaborators offering opposition leader the posts of Premier and Deputy Prime Minister has failed to meet the latter’s demands, who understandably wants to be legitimated by popular consensus through democratic and transparent elections.To determine if a conflict will break out it’s important to consider four factors. First of all, the decisions the president will take. Being himself the focus of criticism, future developments will largely depends on the direction he decides to follow. Putin’s Russia continues to exert strong economic pressure on Ukraine, but it cannot impose the president by force, although some sources claim that Russian officers are already in Ukraine to help the government regain control of the situation. In any case, Russia cannot afford exposing itself too much and it is likely that it will prefer to play its cards close to the chest, if the opposition is not intimidated. Secondly, it is necessary to understand what will happen in the east of the country, where lives a considerably large Russian minority. If the revolt takes hold in those regions, it will be difficult for the government to resist and the possibility of a civil war will wane away, but if the country is divided, a conflict may break out. At the moment it seems that the opposition is rising in the eastern part of the country, but not yet sufficiently. The third factor is represented by the armed forces. If the latter broke apart, a civil war would be very a possible scenario, but at the moment there are no signs of defeat, although this does not seem to be good news for the opposition in the short term. The last relevant factor is the availability of weapons. To date, protesters seem to have none, even though former defense minister Gritsenko has invited those who might have any in their homes to bring them in the streets for defensive purposes. Calling early elections with the opportunity for Yanukovych to run again for President could be a solution, but it would take a credible mediator to get there.