Putin: “muscles” and dialogue” “

Some days ago, Vladimir Putin addressed to Russia and to rest of the world, the annual speech on the state of the Federation. It was a “Putin”-stlye speech. Hearing the Russian president speak is not like listening to most Western political leaders: there is no room for sympathy, for smiles, or for exchanging knowing looks to the camera. In the saddle for fifteen years. Considering his period of service as Prime Minister, Putin has been at the helm of Russia for the past fifteen years, focusing on his unfaltering determination and on the direct government of a great power that is not concealed behind rhetorical gimmicks, but is marked direct communication, to make his people – as well as foreign governments – understand that the Kremlin is led by a person capable of keeping everything under control, whom there’s no fooling around with. Never. From a certain angle, Putin is a past century politician, from the 20th or even 19th century. He is certainly a politician whose cultural background and experience are alien to a large part of the Western world, including a great number of today’s political leaders. Increasing domestic consensus. However, Putin still enjoys high domestic consensus, and those convinced that he has lost his compatriots’ support risk being misled by wishful thinking. In the speech delivered a few days ago, the President reiterated that Crimea is fully Russian, that annexation has taken place legitimately and that the change of government in Ukraine has been a coup d’etat. These statements may be indigestible for many Europeans (although fans of the new “czar” are increasing, in France as in Hungary, in Germany as in Romania and in several other Countries), but they largely reflect the feelings of many Russians. Similarly, the pure power politics adopted by Putin on the international scene, where diplomacy goes hand in hand with threats and even with the use of force, has shocked many, but it has a different impact east of Kiev. Putin may be irritating, annoying, unpleasantly aggressive, but he’s no fool. When it comes to playing at the table of the politics of power, the Russian president is often unscrupulous, but not hazardous. Rarely are his moves made without having been accurately thought out. His weak spots. Obviously, also Putin sometimes makes mistakes. It was evident for everyone that at a certain point he lost control of the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine, along with the escalating violence in the region, that risked weakening Russia’s position. The shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines aircraft past July, with its 290 victims, bears witness to this. Therefore, weaknesses in Putin’s politics do exist, and, paradoxically, his greatest limitation may be precisely his tendency to connect all areas of action to the logics and to the traditional themes of the politics of power. As demonstrated by the economic crisis that is hitting Russia, caused by a depreciation of oil and gas, and by the resulting weakening of the ruble, the country also needs something else. Beyond sanctions, dialogue. These evident weaknesses of the Russian system could prompt the creation of areas of dialogue. But it won’t be easy. Moreover, the (weak) sanctions yet in force, which this year are bound to cost millions of euros to European enterprises, are a further constraint. It would have been necessary to take different, rapid measures at diplomatic level. However, there’s still room for manouvre. Although it’s an inconvenient neighbour, we cannot fail to negotiate with Russia, because willing or not, Moscow is an important player in many spheres, from the Mediterranean to the borders with China.