Europe stalled?” “

The European Union is in agitation. As enlargement and elections to the European Parliament in Strasbourg approach, fascinating new prospects are being opened up, but many problems still remain unresolved. It’s enough to think of the mini-summit in Berlin between the leaders of Germany, France and Great Britain, which aroused concerns among those excluded from the meeting; the continuing debate about the European Constitution; the preparation of the summit at the end of March; and the planned revision of the Stability Pact. THE MINI-SUMMIT AND OTHER SOURCES OF FRICTION. At the centre of controversy was the recent meeting between GERHARD SCHROEDER, JACQUES CHIRAC and TONY BLAIR, who discussed various issues including the preparation of the European Council at the end of March, the revival of the “Lisbon Strategy”, the progress of the Intergovernmental Conference and reinforced continental collaboration in the field of defence. “Whenever meetings between European leaders are held – said PAT COX, president of the European Parliament – in whatever combination that includes some and excludes others, a potential source of anxiety is created for those not present”. He added however: “We have a need for fresh air, new ideas and spirit of change. Anything that brings new life-blood into the EU is welcome, especially if it furthers the process of economic reforms”. Various heads of state and of government not invited to the Berlin meeting are of a rather different view. In effect the initiative of the “triumvirate”, while it was aimed at a revival of Community policies, risks creating a Europe of two or more speeds and complicating relations between the 25. There’s already no shortage of reasons for dissension: it’s enough to think of the deferment in the finalization of the European Constitution, the opposition of many states to the idea of increasing their contributions to the EU budget, the Cypriot question or the curbs imposed by the Netherlands on the entry of workers from the 10 countries about to enter the EU. THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE REMAINS ON HOLD. With regard to the constitutional Treaty, pressures are increasing to achieve its approval before the elections in June. A session of the Constitutional Affairs commission of the European Parliament (EP) was held last week; it tackled the question with the two vice-presidents of the Convention, the Belgian JEAN-LUC DEHANE and the Italian GIULIANO AMATO, and EU Commissioner MICHEL BARNIER. According to the latter, time is running against the Constitution, but “it’s possible and necessary to reach an agreement on the text before June; only a limited number of questions still remain to be solved”. Meanwhile informal contacts continue at the headquarters of the EP with a view to a “symbolic” adoption of the draft Constitution drawn up by the Convention, especially to give a strong signal to national governments and prevent the work completed by VALERY GISCARD D’ESTAING from being watered down. For his part, Irish premier BERTIE AHERN, current President of the European Council, has reaffirmed that he will not convene “a new session of the IGC until basic agreement has been reached. A second failure would spell the death of the Constitution”. NEW COMMISSIONERS AND STABILITY PACT. Work continues, in the meantime, in the Palais Braydel, seat of the Executive in Brussels where the tasks to be assigned to the ten new Commissioners, one for each new member state, were officially finalised on 18 February. These Commissioners will have voting rights, but will not have for the time being direct responsibility for a particular operational sector; instead they will flank other exponents of the “EU government” so as to give them a suitable “run-in” period. They will remain in office, like the Commission as a whole, until 31 October, even though it is probable that many will be re-confirmed in their posts. At the present time the Commission is also evaluating a possible reform of the Stability Pact, while maintaining its function as “safeguard” of the EU economy and guarantor of the public finances of the twelve countries that form part of the euro zone. After the dispute in November 2003 with Ecofin (which had decided not to punish France and Germany with the sanctions imposed by Brussels for exceeding the permitted ceiling of their deficit, according to the rules of the Pact), the Commission is reported to be moving towards more flexible measures, that would take into account economic trends and possible anti-cyclical policies decided by the individual countries. Nor is the hypothesis apparently being excluded of assigning greater influence to overall public indebtedness rather than to the ratio between annual deficit and GDP. Some investments could also be excluded from the calculation (funds allocated to research, education, infrastructures).