The enlargement of the European Union will not lead to a mass influx of migrants: that is the main finding of the study “Migration trend in an enlarged Europe” conducted by H. Krieger on behalf of the EU agency, European Foundation for the improvement of conditions of life and work, on the basis of data collected by the Commission. The fear of a mass arrival of workers from the new member states of the EU is unfounded on the basis of four factors. First, the majority of migrants from these states had already entered the Union prior to enlargement. In any case, the demographic situation of these states presents a low birth rate that will lead in the next 30-40 years to a decline in population and hence to a decline in emigration. Third, the resources allocated to economic development will lead to foreign trade and inward investment such as to determine advantages for the economies of these countries and a consequent enrichment of their population. Fourth, workers in these countries have demonstrated a low response to the opportunities provided by the free circulation of labour and only 2% of the unemployed are interested in emigrating. The study points out that previous experiences of enlargement (with the accession of Greece, Spain and Portugal) had no negative consequences in terms of mass emigration. The data on the European youth who study abroad with the Erasmus programme demonstrate an opposite and positive trend: from 1987 to 2004 the number of students who have benefited from the student exchange programme has soared from 3,244 to 1,226,146.
