The General Directorate for Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Commission has published the second edition of its intermediate forecasts 2006, based on an analysis of the five major European economies (Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain) to which for the first time Poland has been added as the largest of the new member states. The economies of the six countries represent 77% of total EU GDP. Presenting the document to the press, European Commissioner for the Economy Joaquin Almunia declared that “this year economic growth is set to be the best since 2000”. He also warned that only by “profiting from the favourable situation in the business cycle and by continuing the structural reforms and budgetary recovery will we be able to increase the potential of growth where it is weak and create the necessary margins of security to tackle difficult moments”. The so-called macros are substantially positive, in spite of the rise in consumer prices linked to the growth of energy costs: basic inflation remains stable, unemployment – albeit slowly – is falling, internal demand and the tax revenues of member states are increasing thanks to a better economic trend. According to the Commission, the main risk for Europe is a further and significant rise in the price of petrol, a circumstance that could block if not reverse the growth predicted for 2007.
