The human tide

A billion refugees by 2050 due to the greenhouse effect: a seventh of the world’s population risks being forced to abandon its own homeland as a result of climate changes that will result in drought and poor harvests, and lead to the outbreak of local wars to gain access to natural resources. That is the dramatic scenario described by the Report of Christian Aid, a Christian non-government organization based in the United Kingdom and Ireland, under the title “Human tide, the real migration crisis”. “If effective counter-measures are not immediately taken”, says the recently published report, “climate change will create at least a billion refugees throughout the planet by 2050”. The most authoritative experts on the consequences of global warming were involved in the drafting of the Report (available on line on www.christian-aid.org.uk). It is superfluous to add that this dramatic exodus could also have consequences in Europe. “A WORLD WITH MANY DARFURS”. “If effective counter-measures are not immediately taken”, says the Report, “climate change will create a billion refugees throughout the planet by 2050. A world with many situations like Darfur is becoming an ever more real threat”. The Report points out that already today 163 million people have been forced to abandon their country of origin, thus acquiring the status of refugees, as a result of wars, natural disasters and major industrial projects. But in just over four decades this number could be multiplied tenfold: by the year 2050, maintains Christian Aid, a further 50 million refugees will have been created by conflicts and violations of human rights, 250 million by floods, drought and famine, and 645 million by projects such as dams, deforestation and major industrial developments. A DESPERATE STRUGGLE FOR RESOURCES. “A billion human beings will flee their own country into neighbouring countries, in a desperate struggle to procure the resources necessary for survival, whether it’s food, homes or jobs”, warns the Report. It’s “a mass migration that will unleash new wars and dreadful tensions”. And these resources will become ever scarcer: citing figures not yet published by the British group of inter-governmental experts, the Report maintains that by 2080 between 1,100,000,000 and 3,200,000,000 (a third of the world’s population) will not have enough water, and between 200 and 600 million people not enough food. Moreover, between 2 and 7 million people will be affected by the raising of sea levels. The Report presents examples of case-studies in Sudan, Uganda, Sri Lanka, Burma, Colombia, and Mali, where Christian Aid has long been working. These situations demonstrate that “internal displacements caused by conflicts risk being transformed into disputes over land and other natural resources. In all these cases – points out the Report – very few people will ever return to their homes”.100 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR WOULD BE NEEDED. The scientists consulted by Christian Aid predict that in the course of this century the average temperature of the earth will rise between 1.8 and 3 degrees Celsius due to greenhouse gas emissions, thus jeopardizing the lives of hundreds of millions, and perhaps as many as several billion people. According to Christian Aid, the main culprits of climate change are the industrialized countries, and it is therefore their responsibility to “pay” for the necessary costs to help the populations most affected by the consequences of the greenhouse effect, and also to launch projects to try to avert the risk of this imminent tragedy. In the view of the NGO – which describes a long series of possible recommendations and provisions – 100 billion dollars per year would be needed “to help poor people to adjust to climate change and enable them to stay in their homes”. This money, insists the NGO, “should not be taken from already existing aid budgets”. Moreover, “it is in the interest of all countries to share and develop low carbon technologies and transmit know-how. The costs should be assumed by the rich countries”, including those of the EU. In the short term, “financial support ought to be increased through more rapid debt cancellation and a growth in aid for development”. The alternative, the Report suggests, “is a desperate situation that could destabilize whole regions, precipitating them further into poverty and conflict”. Christian Aid’s Report cannot leave Europe at ease or indifferent.