The hoped-for signing

“Europe has overcome its institutional crisis and is ready to tackle the challenges of the future”, declared JOSÉ SOCRATES , Portuguese premier and current President of the EU Council. Socrates is undoubtedly the most satisfied of the 27 heads of state and of government who took part in the summit in Lisbon on 18-19 October. Agreement on the future EU Treaty was reached in the capital of his country. And it once again in Lisbon that the Treaty is due to be signed by Europe’s leaders on 13 December.NEXT STAGES. Thanks to Portuguese mediation, the leaders of the member states managed to get over the many obstacles on the table and some reciprocal vetoes, thus overcoming the stalemate generated by the French and Dutch rejection of the draft Constitution. The new Treaty comprises 256 pages: a Preamble, the text proper (in large part recycling the contents of the Constitution of 2004) and a series of protocols and annexes. The calendar to enforce the Treaty, and make it legally binding, will be in various stages. The Charter of Rights will be proclaimed in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 12 December. On the following morning the heads of state and of government will proceed to the signing of the Treaty in Lisbon. In the afternoon of the same day they will all transfer to Brussels (even if some have questioned the cost of the operation, and the resulting problems of traffic and security) for the European Council that will then give its official seal to the Treaty. Immediately after that, the process of its ratification in the individual member states can begin. Unanimity in its acceptance by the 27 is needed. Except for Ireland, which for constitutional reasons will have to submit the document to a popular referendum, the other states should proceed to ratification by a vote in parliament. Only once the 27 have said “yes” to the Treaty will the Lisbon Treaty enter into force, hopefully on 1st January 2009, in time for the European elections in the following June.EVERYONE HAPPY? The agreement reached in the Portuguese capital took into account the requests of various governments and in particular Poland, Great Britain and Italy. Warsaw obtained the insertion of the so-called “Ioannina clause” in a binding protocol: it prescribes that a decision assumed by the Council in a majority vote may be temporarily frozen at the request of any opposing countries. Great Britain and Poland have been granted exemption from the application of the Charter of Fundamental Rights; London also claimed to have a free hand in its policies for justice and security. Italy for her part had insisted she should not lose parity of seats in the EP with France and Great Britain: so the summit decided to assign one further seat to Rome, which from 2009 on (when the EP will pass from the current 785 to 751 seats) will have 73 seats, just like London; Paris, on the other hand, will be able to count on 74 MEPs, in view of her higher population. This composition will hold good until 2014: after that the Council recommends that the distribution of seats be reviewed taking into account the criterion of citizenship, and not that of resident population, as provided for by a recent Resolution of the European Parliament. INNOVATIONS OF THE TREATY. The Treaty contains many new features. Some key figures of EU institutional architecture are reinforced: the European Council will have a President who will remain in office for a term of two and half years (instead of the current six months); foreign policy will be assigned to a High Representative, who will also be Vice-President of the Commission and Commissioner for External Relations; the Commission will be reduced from the current 27 members to 18, i.e. a number of Commissioners equivalent to two-thirds of EU states. The Parliament’s political role and power of co-decision, which it shares with the Council, will be reinforced. So-called “communitarized” policies and those that can be decided by majority vote, applying the new voting system, will be increased. Qualified majority will require the convergence of 55% of member states representing 65% of the EU population. But the unanimous vote (i.e. the right of veto) will remain in some strategic sectors, such as tax, foreign policy, social policy and the membership of new states. MANY QUESTIONS STILL OPEN. If responses to the future of the EU did come out of the summit in Lisbon, many important political questions still remain unresolved. First, one may wonder whether, and when, a “constituent spirit” will return to the EU: i.e. the spirit of the Convention, clear sign not only that a Europe “that works” is needed, but that a genuine “European common home” is the goal to be aspired to. Another problem deferred is that of the European identity and the frontiers of the EU: only partial replies emerge from the Lisbon Treaty. But already Croatia, Turkey, the Balkans and other states are knocking at the door… There was also talk of a “more efficient” Europe: good intentions must find a match in reality. The EU must show how it can really bring visible and added benefits to the life of citizens. Lastly there’s the problem for the two-speed Europe: already affirmed in the case of the single currency and Schengen, it is now being re-proposed for the Charter of Fundamental Rights.