What way out?

“Preparation of the European Council following the referendum in Ireland”: a simple amendment of the order of the day for the European Parliament session now underway in Strasbourg (16-19 June) marks the climate of uncertainty and trepidation that reigns in the EU’s institutional headquarters. The vote by which the Irish people rejected the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon has imposed a radical overhaul of the EU agenda.Irish results and reactions. The electors of the “emerald isle” went to the polls on 12 June to approve or reject the reformed text defined in the Portuguese capital last autumn (the Treaty of Lisbon): 3,051,000 citizens had the right to vote, but of these only 1,621,000 (53.1%) bothered to do so. Those who voted “yes” to the Treaty amounted to 752,000 (46.6% of the vote), but they were outstripped by the 862,000 (53.4%) who voted “no”. Of Ireland’s 43 constituencies, 10 voted in favour of the treaty, 33 against. In the nation’s capital, Dublin, a debate is still in progress on the reasons that prompted public opinion to oppose the reforms agreed on by the 27 governments of the European Union and supported in Ireland by the cabinet, by almost all the parliamentary forces and by the associations of civil society. The comment of the Minister of Justice, Dermot Ahern, was short but to the point: “it’s a disappointing result but one we cannot ignore”. The premier Brian Cowen, who campaigned for approval of the Treaty, pointed out that “there are no obvious responses” to the position expressed by his fellow-citizens and that Europe must feel some obligation “to provide part of the solution rather than maintain that it is only Ireland’s problem”.Summit: no foregone conclusions. To enter into force, the Treaty of Lisbon requires ratification by all 27 EU member states. So far 18 countries have proceeded to ratify it by parliamentary means; the others are committed to doing so by the end of the year. The only country that, in conformity with its national Constitution, has opted for a referendum was Ireland. The Treaty’s rejection by the citizens of Ireland has inevitably led to a revision of EU plans. The meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers at the start of this week devoted its attention almost exclusively to the preparation of the summit in Brussels on 19-20 June, when the heads of state and of government will have to analyse the implications of the Irish vote and ponder forthcoming actions linked to the ratification process. In the meantime consultations have been launched by the Presidents of the Commission and Council. The EP in Strasbourg then modified its own agenda to discuss the summit in the light of the Irish vote in its debate on 18 June. The impasse in which the Treaty now languishes and the possible postponement of its entry into force have now gained the upper hand and oblige the summit of 19-20 June to change its route. Its conclusions are far from foregone. “Seeking a way out together”. Slovene premier Janez Jansa, current President of the European Council, explained that “European leaders are determined to find a solution to the problem created by the Irish vote”. The line that emerged in the bilateral talks this week seems clear: the result of the Irish referendum needs to be pondered, the reasons for the rejection expressed by Irish citizens need to be scrutinized, but at the same time – emphasized Jansa – “we cannot forget that eighteen member states, representing a large majority of EU citizens, have already ratified the treaty” and that “the others have confirmed their commitment” to do so. Jansa could count on the support of countries, large and small, beginning with France, to whom the six-months rotating Presidency of the Union will pass on 1st July. “The European Council will ask the Irish premier to explain the reasons that led the Irish to reject the Treaty, and try to find a way out of the impasse together”. Going ahead with the ratifications. The President of the European Commission, the Portuguese José Manuel Barroso, one of the champions of the Lisbon compromise, is of much the same view. “The Commission had hoped for another result – he admits -. However, we respect the outcome of the referendum”. The head of the Executive adds that “we now need to go ahead with the ratifications” and “there’s a joint responsibility of all member states to address this situation”. Barroso further underlines that Ireland remains “committed to building a strong Europe, and playing a full and active part in the EU”. Speaking in Strasbourg, the President of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Poettering, stressed that the Irish rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon “confronts the EU with one of the most difficult challenges in its history”. According to the German politician, the treaty “makes the Union more democratic, permits it greater capacity for action, endows it with greater transparency, reinforces the European Parliament, and gives citizens greater power of initiative in their relations with the institutions of the EU”. For these reasons, “all the necessary steps need to be taken to turn the Treaty into a reality”.