Will a shadow remain?

The shadow of Vladimir Putin, the strong man of Russian politics over the past decade, is gradually extending over the new President Dmitri Medvedev, whom he had wanted firstly as chairman of Russia’s Gazprom energy colossus and then in the political arena. The Kremlin’s choice for President won over 70% of the vote on Sunday March 2 (over 108 million are those entitled to vote, two thirds voted). He now will have to return the many favours accorded by his “inventor”. Putin himself may be appointed Prime Minister, so that he and neo President Medvedev would jointly be holding the reins of the Country. The elections’ outcome was obvious. The other candidates never worried the “tzar’s” protégé’s run for President. Communist leader Ziuganov, nazionalist candidate Zhirinovski and unheard of Bogdanov share the remaining votes. There were no real and true democratic and liberal opponents, since, for various reasons, they had immediately been cut off from the run for elections. The media – almost entirely siding for Putin – certainly didn’t promote actual competition. It isn’t accidental that the international OSCE and the Council of Europe observers supported by the EU, had expressed their doubts over the elections claiming these didn’t comply with Europe’s democratic standards. Once the results were known, CoE observers confirmed their reservations through Andreas Gross, head of delegation: “these votes reflect the constituency’s intentions whose democratic potential unfortunately wasn’t entirely expressed”. The head of Brussels’ Commission, José Manuel Barroso, acted in his institutional capacities: he congratulated himself with the President-elect and voiced his hope for “the consolidation of strategic – Russia-EU- partnership” “based not only on mutual interests but also on the respect for those values for which we declare our joint commitment”. Now that the dust has settled, a series of questions on Russia’s future come to the fore related to other international issues: the Balkan angle of Moscow-Belgrade’s close relations; the Kremlin’s persuasive capacity compared to the entire EU, its pre-eminent energy client; the influence on North Korea or Iran; the stability of former Soviet Republics. The first bulk of questions concerns Russia’s domestic policy. In short: will Medvedev manage to take a distance from Putin and take on freedom of action? During the campaign, the President-elect said he would follow Putin’s course. But right before elections he declared that Russia needs reforms, economic innovation and personal freedoms. Was it just pleasantry or did these words represent profound convictions that ought to be coherently put into practice? The second bulk of hanging questions relate to the international stature of the head of the Kremlin. Russia still is a colossus, which could play a positive role on world scenarios, partly contributing to peace and cooperation between States, or else, it could spark conflicts. The first efforts of Medvedev in the Balkans, before his enthronement, are not at all encouraging. What will be his position on thorny issues like the Kosovo, the Middle East and Africa? How will the relations be with the US, the European Union and Beijing? Will he have a conciliatory approach on key issues like energy and armaments, or will he foment threatening tensions in the whole world? Many of the answers will come from the relationship that will gradually build up between Putin and Medvedev. The latter’s declared “political continuity” , at the moment, definitely isn’t at all reassuring.