With great caution

Next week will be crucial for the future of Kosovo. A transition that greatly interests the EU.On Sunday February 3rd Serbian electors will cast their ballot vote to elect the President of the Republic. The candidates are Tomislav Nikolic (from the Serbian Radical Party, first turn winner with almost 40% of votes) and Boris Tadic (the Democratic Party outgoing president gained 36%) . This is a long-awaited vote since it is expected to shortly anticipate the EU’s recognition, while Belgrade continues considering it one of its provinces. Despite the lack of official confirmation, a series of signs seem to go in this direction. “Kosovo is ready at any moment. The proclamation of independence is just a matter of days”, declared in the past days in Brussels Kosovo’s Premier Hashim Thaci, at the end of a meeting with Javier Solana, EU Foreign Affairs representative. The same line was followed by the President of the Slovenian Republic Janez Jansa, interviewed by State television in his Country: “important decisions have already been taken in the EU framework in December”. This is a very significant position, considering that Lubiana holds the 27-Presidency in this first semester of 2008. The project drawn up past December 10 by the United States and by the European Union envisages sending 1,800 policemen and magistrates who will gradually replacea the 17thousand envoys of the Kfor mission of the UN, under whose protectorate the region was placed since 1999. The “civil” presence is aimed at ensuring “non-traumatic” independence and to avoid the resurgence of ever-present ethnic rancor between the Serbian minority and the Albanian majority. In exchange, Belgrade would again be given a preferential path in its EU adhesion process and a softening in The Hague International Court’s position in the judging of war crimes in ex-Yugoslavia. The Court always conditioned its assent to signing the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the Union and Belgrade to the arrest and prosecution of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Kradzic, charged with genocide, persecution and deportation in the massacres carried out by pro-Serbian militia in the 1990s Bosnia conflict and in particular in Srebrenica and Goradze. In his capacity as EU President-in-Office, Slovenian Foreign Minister Rupel met with Serge Brammertz, new chief procurator of the Court who recently replaced Carla Del Ponte and her Dutch colleague Maxime Verhagen, among the most committed in international rulings. From a judicial viewpoint, for Brussels the stand of The Hague Court isn’t binding in the relationship with Belgrade. However, to ignore such stand would represent a serious political disavowa l entailing the denial of the body established by international chancelleries to prove that justice for war victims is possible resorting not to weapons, by to Codes.Belgrade on the other hand, is firm in its “no” to Kosovo’s independence, knowing it can count (in view of a debate in the UN Security Council in New York) on Russia’s historical support but also on the closeness of Asian, African and South-American Countries.In the past days President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence and the support to this possibility would be an immoral and illegal act which Russia could never endorse. For Moscow, every decision on the future of the Balkan region must take into consideration Resolution 1244 through which the UN recognized Serbia’s right to territorial integrity. It’s a situation undergoing constant evolution and the consequences of an impudent move are unpredictable. In this context come to mind the words that Manzoni puts in the mouth of his character Antonio Ferrer: “Adelante con juicio”.A teaching of the past, which is all the more valid today for present international politics.