Waiting for Ireland

Elections in Germany and Portugal, referendum in Ireland… and already people are looking forward to the approaching elections in the UK and Hungary. Interesting signals for continental policy have come out of Berlin, while all eyes are now focused on the “emerald isle”: a few hundred thousand electors in fact hold the fate of European integration in their hands and on 2 October will be called to decide whether the Lisbon Treaty shall enter into force or be consigned to the dustbin of history.Westerwelle wins, Merkel reconfirmed as chancellor. The German elections decreed the victory of the FDP, which increased its share of the vote and number of seats in the Bundestag. The Christian Democrats of the CDU, allied with the Bavarian CSU, managed, in substance, to hold onto their position as the majority party, whereas a slump was registered by the Social-Democrats of the SPD, hitherto in government as the junior partner in the “grand coalition” led by the leader of the CDU Angela Merkel. So, thanks to the ballot of 27 September, Merkel will remain as Chancellor with a new centre-right coalition. Her intention is that the government should be installed prior to 9 November, the day marking the twentieth anniversary of the collapse of the Berlin Wall. But the real victor in this election is unanimously considered Guido Westerwelle, head of the FDP. An editorial in the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” says that Westerwelle “is a real phenomenon, a living paradox: he has in fact succeeded in turning a neoliberal party into the great victor of an election that followed hard on the heels of the collapse of neoliberalism”.The Social-Democratic defeat. Some further reflections on the electoral result in Germany are worth making. First, Angela Merkel remains firmly in power; although her party did not win the election outright, she now enjoys the added advantage acquired by her new moderate ally in government. Second, the electors severely punished the Social-Democrats of Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who had shared the government’s decisions in the last legislature. Third, the far left, represented by the Linke, enjoyed a considerable popular success and increased its share of the vote, as too did the Greens (the question of climate change continues to create support for the environmentalists, as also was the case recently in France). Priorities of the liberals. So the machine to prepare the future German Executive has already moved into top gear. Some questions are beginning to emerge about the unprecedented collaboration between Merkel and Westerwelle. The Liberals, in fact, confirmed what their “warhorses” are during the election campaign, adding some that are not dear to the hearts of the CDU/CSU. The priorities among the rank and file of the FDP are clear: generalized reduction of taxes; free market and cutting of red tape for businesses; refusal to impose sacrifices on industry deriving from any pledges made on the environmental front; freeing up the labour market and relaxing rules for the contractual safeguard of workers; pro-nuclear energy; pro-Europeanism but opposition to Turkey’s entry into the EU; strong promotion of individual civil liberties and civil rights. Angela Merkel will therefore have to establish, together with her new allies in government, a credible programme and it is probable she will try to curb the more radical neoliberal and libertarian persuasions of Westerwelle.Portugal, Socialists confirmed. In Portugal, by contrast, the vote has confirmed as the main party the Socialists of outgoing Premier José Socrates. The Socialist share of the vote admittedly dropped by almost 10%, but they remain well ahead of the share of the vote reached by their Conservative rivals of Manuela Ferreira Leite. The Spanish daily “La Vanguardia” observed that Socrates was seen “as guarantor of a peninsular economic integration that can no longer be reversed”. In the Iberian peninsula, in fact, Socialist-led governments tend to resist, as they also do in northern Scandinavia and in a few other countries. But in Great Britain and in Hungary, where elections are due to be held in 2010, the Labour and centre-left governments now in power are faced by the prospect of electoral defeat according to all the polls. In Portugal Socrates has been given the task of forming a government coalition which will have to come to terms with the minor parties, in the past ill-disposed towards his leadership. Dublin and the Lisbon Treaty. Meanwhile the spotlight is trained on Dublin. After the Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty in the referendum held last year, the picture has completely changed. The Irish government has been given ample reassurances that there won’t be any interferences in the field of the family, pro-life, national neutrality and tax regime. The front opposed to the Treaty has lost numerous supporters, while wide sectors of the political and economic establishment and of civil society have expressed their support for the Treaty. The electors have understood that the eyes of Europeans are turned on them: a new rejection of the Treaty would risk isolating the country that has received enormous advantages and resources from the EU.