Complex path

An arbitration commission of experts in international law coordinated by the European Union (or, in alternative, a bilateral agreement) will seek a solution to Slovenia and Croatia’s unsolved dispute. This is a first important step. The dispute, ongoing since 1991, has deadlocked Croatia’s EU accession negotiations over the past ten months thus limiting EU enlargement to the Balkan States, born on the ashes of former Yugoslavia. This is crucial step for the establishment of peace in the region, putting an end to armed conflicts once and for all. The EU has a unique opportunity to play a major role in the future development of the Balkan area, taking the floor of the United States and Russia. It is an opportunity to erase the Country’s internal divisions and struggles – notably in Kosovo – whose tragic consequences still drag on, from the public opinion’s memories.Zagreb accepted to invalid the documents submitted after June 25 1991 – when the Country declared its independence – aimed at the resolution of the dispute. As a result and under pressure of the US and of several Western Countries, Lubijana lifted the veto to the prosecution of Croatia’s EU-adhesion negotiations. The two States’ land-and-sea borders will be defined through arbitration or with a bilateral agreement. At present Slovenia has no direct access to international waters (with considerable consequences on fishery) and urges Croatia to extend by one-and-a-half kilometers the sea border in the Gulf of Piran. Given this situation, it is most likely that “a co-managed” solution will be sought to protect both parties’ interests. However other questions such as the stockpiling of Krsko’s nuclear plant radioactive waste (on Slovenian soil but in co-ownership) and the debt of ex-Ljubljanska Bank to Croatian depositors, whose deposits have been frozen for the past five years, are yet to be solved. Croatian neo-Premier Jadranka Kosor, (who succeeded dimissioner Ivo Sanader at the beginning of July) dearly needs this success to counterbalance the unpopular measures adopted by her government to heal the Country’s tragic economic situation. Despite the Euroskeptic increase over the past ten months, nobody dares question that EU adhesion is the only path leading to Croatia’s stable political and social future. Once Liubijana has given the green light, Zagreb’s yearning for Europe will need to address the reservation of several EU governments – notably The Netherlands – which protest Croatia’s lack of cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague, especially as the relates to the submittance of papers documenting the tragic artillery assault on Knin in 1995. In the meantime, the intergovernmental conference regarding Croatia’s EU accession is scheduled for Friday October 2. Items on the agenda include the 14 negotiating points between Zagreb and Brussels, 5 nearing completion and 9 yet to be addressed. Indeed, arbitration protocol negotiations are due to resume on the same day. It is to be assumed that Croatia’s EU membership will take place in 2012, while the Country’s adhesion to the Schengen Treaty and the adoption of the euro currency is expected to take much longer. Croatia’s EU-adhesion is expected to cause a domino effect involving all the Countries of former Yugoslavia. It is an intricate path, considering the region’s complexity, which is however crucial to Europe’s future.