The only way out

What lies behind Mahmoud Abbas’ request to the UN to recognize the Palestinian state? What are the concrete possibilities of an affirmative answer? What will be the impact of this new move on the entire MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) and which have been the roles of Obama, of the Quartet – US, UN, EU and Russia – and Blair? Of this, Harry Hagopian, lawyer, international law scholar, consultant on the Middle East for the Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales, mediator in Oslo’s Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, was interviewed by SIR Europe. Armenian, polyglot, Hagopian is a member of the Sorbonne and of the ACEP think-tank in Paris. In his view, serious discussions on the territories’ borders and for a final agreement conducted through bilateral negotiations with a pre-set deadline are the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The request for the recognition of the Palestinian State at the UN appears to be deadlocked in the meanders of the Security Council, and it also seems doomed to remain in this state for more months to come, while awaiting for the resumption of the negotiations proposed by the Quartet … “Whether it fails or not, the Palestinians will attend the UN General assembly, where they are likely to obtain a two-third majority vote, that would confer Palestine the status of a “non-member observer state” just like the Holy See and Taiwan. Palestinian premier Abu Mazen’s move is strategic in that it represents the Palestinians’ attempt to show to the rest of the world the extent of their frustration due to the fact that the solution of two states living side by side, promised for long by the United States, is not coming true. In response the US Congress threatens to cut financial support to the Palestinian Authority unless they resume negotiations. Notably, Israelis affirm that said funds used to train security staff and for the economy benefit not only the Palestinians but also Israel, as they are a guarantee of decreased acts of violence”.While waiting for the vote of the Security Council, is there a chance that the two parties may return to the negotiating table? “As commentator I don’t think that the knots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be solved with the request of the recognition of Palestine. Instead, it is necessary to resume negotiations. Moreover, it’s understandable that Palestinians, Christians and Muslims alike, no longer believe in the possibility of sitting around a negotiating table. For twenty years we drew up new maps of the region while last year president Obama promised the UN that a solution would be found within twelve months, with the recognition of the Palestinian State. Thus it’s important that negotiations take place under certain conditions. We have to be sure of the timeframe and of the terms of the agreement and the question of the borders must also be discussed. If we agree that the parameters of the negotiating table are the so-called “1967 Clinton parameters”, then we will have solved the problem, since we will be discussing the geography of the future Palestine. But simply saying that it’s necessary to resume talks for an agreement is not enough. It’s too vague. To make it all more concrete a precise timetable is needed. For example, if an agreement is not reached by the end of the year then everyone will vote in favour of a Palestinian state at the UN. I mentioned ‘one year’, but it may well be a debatable deadline, it’s up to the politicians to decide. That would be the greatest challenge awaiting the international community, Palestine and the Israelis”.Is Palestine ready to become a state? “Everyone, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the UN, the Quartet, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, declared that premier Salam Fayyad has prepared the Palestinian Authority to assume its role as a State, and not only under the political angle. All Christian Churches in Jerusalem – Orthodox, Catholic, and Reformed – released a joint statement before the Palestinians’ independence request was filed at the UN, calling for a two-State solution with no violence involved. I confide that one day it will be a reality”.What have Palestinians gained from this request? Has something changed? “The request of Palestine’s recognition as an independent State was encouraged by the so-called ‘Arab awakening’. I prefer this term to that of ‘Arab spring’, as it has a more historical meaning and it doesn’t refer to a specific period in time. Abbas’ new move is to be viewed within the framework of the struggle of the entire MENA region, which will encourage the development of a cultural democracy which has been supported at the UN by the Arab League, which will give hope to the other States and will spread across the Arab world”.