EUROPE

Uncertainties after vote

Doubts about French, Greek and Serbian elections

A The crisis has voted against Sarkozy: reads the headline of the French newspaper "Le Monde" after the first round of the Presidential election. It also played a determining role, with its effects on workers and households, in Sarkozy’s defeat at the second round on May 6th, together with serious political mistakes he himself admitted. The outgoing President, neo-Gaullist exponent, will be replaced, even if with a meagre margin vote, by the Socialist François Hollande, self-described as a "monsieur normal" marking the different style with his overexposed and promise maker adversary.Paris must now prove itself in Europe and Internationally: the two Elysée Palace contenders each had their warnings and orders for Europe, on austerity and growth issues, migration monitoring, foreign policy and other sectors, claiming their ability to conduct a 27 Member State Union. Once the election lights are turned off, the winner Mr. Hollande must simply acknowledge the fact it is just one of the EU partners, even if an important one. The messages he is receiving from Mrs. Merkel and other European leaders are both of encouragement and "moderation". Europe is all about negotiations and not give orders. Furthermore, the French vote has not been the first and might not be the last to be influenced by the crisis and this is where the European magnifying lens must be focused. One can wonder, in fact, the effect on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s politics, due to the recent election defeat in Schleswigh-Holstein state, just one week before another relevant test, in North-Rhine Westphalia state (May 13th). The same is true for administrative elections in the United Kingdom and Italy, with relevant vote swings among parties and a significant low turnout and anti-political sentiment.Even more so, deeper doubts emerge from Greek ballots. In Greece, the New Democracy (left) and the Pasok (socialist), the two parties who have ruled the country alternatively for the last four decades and in a different way responsible for the enormous Greek public debt and EU partners in the attempt to avoid the country’s default, emerge strongly weakened by the election. A popular vote strongly in favour of extremist right slogans as well as nationalist and xenophobic ones. Not even the complex allocation of parliament seats has enabled the building of a pro-euro "National bailout" majority, engaged to the commitments taken with the Troika (the EU, ECB and IMF) in exchange for significant financial aid. Negotiations for a new government are currently underway and Brussels is waiting for a message of accountability. Otherwise, Greece might slip into isolation and political instability, with dire consequences on the economy and households, that will lead Athens not only out of the Eurozone but also out of the European Union. A perspective that not even the most disappointed Greek citizens can hope for themselves and their nation.Concluding, let us have a look at the results in the Serbian presidential and legislative elections. The match between, the outgoing president leader of the Democratic Party, pro-EU Boris Tadic and Tomislav Nikolic, head of the Progress Party will be decided at the second round on May 20th. Belgrade is tackling different issues: democracy consolidation, Kosovo’s independence, domestic, economic and social conditions, its guiding-country role in the Balkan area and the European perspective. The Balkans are part of the history, culture and continental identity: the EU has repeatedly stressed the "European perspective" in that area. But signals of interest and consistent political choices are needed from the Balkans.