The interim forecast of the EU Commission is based on statistics from the EU’s seven main economies: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland, which together account for 80% of the Gross Domestic Product of the EU. After confirming the slowdown of the last few months, this forecast suggests that the situation might improve as early as the second half of 2008, an assumption that relies "on a quick revival of the American economy" (monetary and budget policy; progressive normalisation of the financial markets). The yearly forecasts for each country (as of February 2008) see Poland top of the list in terms of growth, with +5.3%, followed, by a long distance, by the Netherlands (2.9%) and Spain (2.7%). All other countries score below the EU average of 2%: France and Great Britain 1.7%; Germany 1.6%. The worst forecast is that of Italy, 0.7% p.a.
