Russia - Nato
Montenegro is preparing to become the 29th NATO member Country. The foreign ministers of the Atlantic Pact, gathered in Brussels, have extended their invitation to the small Balkan country. “It’s a historic day,” commented Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, almost comparable to the day of the independence referendum, in 2006. NATO-Russia relations – already strained since the Ukraine and Crimea crisis – are at risk, as the latter has not well received this decision
All 28 NATO Foreign ministers gathered in Brussels have officially invited Montenegro to join the Atlantic Alliance as the 29th member Country. The announcement was given by NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg. He underlined: “the historic decision to initiate accession talks with Montenegro” has been taken unanimously. The news caused the immediate reaction of Russia, conveyed by the President of the Senate Defence Committee Viktor Ozerov, who said that the possibility of Montenegro’s NATO membership would render “many programs previously carried out in conjunction with Russia impossible, including military-technological cooperation.” Today, in Russia’s eyes, Montenegro becomes a potentially dangerous member for its security,” he added. The same stand was reiterated by the spokesperson of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov, while Russian foreign minister Serghei Lavrov expressed a more conciliating position and announced his openness to resume contacts with NATO in the NATO-Russia Council, which has never been put on hold, not even after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, although the past two meetings date back to March 5 and June 2 2014. The Atlantic Pact’s expansion to the East was welcomed by Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni: “The decision to invite Montenegro to join NATO must not be viewed as a decision against someone. Indeed, the purpose is to strengthen security in the area of the Balkans and in the Adriatic. Thus it directly involves our Country.” US Secretary John Kerry was equally reassuring: “NATO constitutes a defensive, uninterrupted alliance established 70 years ago. It represents a threat to no one. It’s not a belligerent organization and it does not focus on Russia nor on any other Country.”
Adhesion period. As for the timeframe of Montenegro’s accession process to the North Atlantic Treaty, Stoltenberg spoke of “the beginning of 2017, due to be followed by ratification procedures in 28 parliaments” which could take about a year. Nevertheless, the small Balkan country “can participate, without the right to vote” in all of NATO’s institutional meetings. Montenegro is now expected to continue the path of reforms, initiated with the endorsement of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty. The reforms are critical to the fulfilment of the criteria required by the Atlantic organization, notably the adjustment of Defence, internal reforms and the rule of law. It’s the first time in six years that a country is invited to join NATO.
“The news doesn’t come as a surprise – confirmed Riccardo Alcaro, responsible for research at the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) program –. It’s a rapprochement process that has reached its final stage.” With perfect – not to say suspicious – timing, given the complex international situation. Moreover, according to the expert:
“The situation with Russia is extremely complex thus Montenegro’s accession invitation would have triggered polemics and resentment regardless of timing.”
“Now it’s hard to foresee the consequences of this decision”, Alcaro underlined. Indeed, Russia’s rigidity in terms of potential, pragmatic forms of interaction with NATO – kept to a minimum since Russia’s annexation of Crimea – was to be expected. I refer to a set of experts panels, all of which have more or less been put on ice, and Russians are expected to further harden their position, thereby worsening European sustainable governance, at least in the short run”. This picture appears to be deadlocked, as confirmed by Secretary Stoltenberg: “NATO doors are open also for Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, and for the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia. Unsurprised, Alcaro explained: “NATO’s action for the Balkans is the fulfilment of a process begun at the time of the war in Bosnia (1995) for the pacification, stabilization and democratization of the Balkan region, the same process implemented for the stabilization of Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall.” “Countries of small dimensions – the expert added – with insignificant military tools, offer NATO no military advantage but they do offer political ones as they curb the influence of foreign powers, and in this case Russia has various interests in Montenegro.”
“Joining NATO, as in the case of EU membership, – Alcaro pointed out – is a powerful tool for the stabilization and containment of internal anti-democratic and authoritarian drifts. NATO – it should be remembered – is the primary instrument enabling the US to exert a decisive influence in Europe.”
From this perspective Russians are right when they say that this accession decreases their influence in Montenegro. It will be the same for future adhesions to the Atlantic Pact, for Bosnia in particular.”
